Elite colleges and universities chased each other to a budgetary precipice. Did peer institutions build a new building of some kind? You need one! Did they dramatically expand services to the student body? Do it too! Redesign the dining hall so that it was Chez Panisse East? Eliminate loans? Ratings and rankings drove a bit of this race (and without any need for the more overt kinds of Clemson-style trickery) but some of it was also just driven by the knowledge that highly selective admissions are a kind of self-solving achievement: the first guarantee of an excellent educational experience for students is being surrounded by other excellent students.
Now it’s going to be interesting to see whether the same institutions try to stay tightly packed when they jump off that cliff. A lot of them are already well past a soft-landing scenario unless the market has a sharp turnaround in the coming year. It doesn’t really matter how big the endowment was three or four years ago, because however big it was, harvesting the interest fueled the operating budget. Even if you increase the percentage of endowment spending, you’re not likely to make up the difference between the budget you had from endowment income four years ago and the income you’ll have next year.
This spring, there’s a range of short-term adaptations out there. Swarthmore and many other institutions have instituted a salary freeze; Brandeis (whose budgetary disaster is greater than almost anyone else) is suspending contributions to retirement accounts. Some institutions are doing what they can to improve things on the revenue side, but there’s not much to be done there except admit more students.
If things stay roughly the same next year, most institutions will have little choice but to undertake a big adjustment in some major part of their budget. I’m still on record as arguing for the kinds of strategies that I advocated when times were flush, at least at smaller institutions: draw faculty together around generalist practices, slowly erode overspecialized and excessively sequential curricular designs in favor of a loosely constituted core. Yes, this means eliminating a few faculty lines, but the idea is to do that very slowly.
Slow may not be an option any longer. Some temporary adaptations might be, and by that I don’t mean hiring lots of adjunct positions to sustain an overextended curricular design. Meaning, a lot of institutions might: a) suspend hiring in vacant lines for the next two years and b) if a suspended department complains they can’t support a program of study as it is designed with such suspensions, consider a temporary change in that program of study to make it sustainable with fewer resources. Similar short-term adaptations on the salary and benefits side might be to freeze hiring in non-faculty positions, suspend sabbaticals for a year, suspend course releases for administrative service. A lot of the other things that some will suggest aren’t big enough. (I’ve read of suggestions at a number of institutions that travel funds be cut temporarily, which at most places I suspect barely add up to one or two salaried positions, if that.)
The real crunch points will come from one of two major decisions: either cutting or amending need-blind admissions on one hand, or eliminating current positions on the other. I was really surprised to see Reed College taking the leap and committing, at least in the short-term, to eliminating need-blind admissions. Of the two big jumps, that seems to me to be the harder of the two politically for most selective private colleges and universities. Need-blind is very nearly gospel at most of the institutions that practice it. There are little ways to hedge against it, like admitting nothing but fully-paid students off the waiting list. But Reed, to give them credit, didn’t try to wrap up their decision in weasel qualifiers. They did it, they’re not happy, but that’s what they chose to do.
In a way, that’s easier to do, though. The students you lose when you give up need-blind are only potential individuals to you, in a way not that different in emotional terms than the students that you think might be potential admits but that you ultimately reject. What you give up with need-blind is a larger idea about higher education, meritocracy and social justice, but in various ways, most selective institutions already have deeply contradictory ideas about how those things mesh together.
Actively eliminating positions is in emotional and political terms a completely different matter.
First, the long low-level rhetorical sniping between administrators and faculty at most institutions is inevitably going to erupt into open warfare if there is a decision to cut positions. Faculty point out, justifiably I think, that the core mission of a university or college is instruction, that everything else is support. On the other hand, the premise of a residential college full of 18-22 year olds also centers on the idea that learning happens outside of the classroom, that the value of the education goes beyond formal learning. Faculty will point out that the growth in administrative ranks, especially at large universities, has well out-paced growth in faculty positions, particularly in tenured positions. Administrators will point out that higher education has become necessarily more complex to administer in a variety of ways, and that faculty have a host of hidden compensations to fall back upon.
Second, while everyone would like to imagine that positions might be eliminated by some rational, fair-minded selection criteria, it doesn’t usually go down like that in the real world. The best case scenario probably remains looking for retirements or vacant positions to shut down, but there’s no guarantee that those will come in sufficient numbers at the right time. In fact, given the hit to retirement accounts, their pace is likely to slow just when you might wish them to come in profusion. If the problem on the administrative side is disproportionate growth in the last two decades, I suppose you might look at the most-recently created positions and seek consolidations in them. That’s going to be a difficult way to go if only because that makes all those positions into a constituency that will defend themselves collectively. In fact, it’s hard to think of a scenario that involves actively occupied positions (faculty or staff) at any institution that won’t pit various constituencies against each other in some pretty vicious ways.
Given all that, Reed’s decision makes more and more sense. You can flip back to need-blind pretty easily as soon as you can afford it again. Reducing the size of staff and faculty is probably as long-term a project as increasing it was, especially if it’s to be done well, with philosophical and institutional coherence, rather than to be done by allowing larger power blocs to gut high-performing but exposed rivals in the academic equivalent of Thunderdome.