From Billions to Trillions: The Potential of COP 29

by Eder Ruiz Sanchez ’25, Sociology & Anthropology and Spanish

Upon our arrival to Baku for COP 29, it was clear the city was prepared to welcome over 50,000 attendees. The airport displayed banners, posters, and staff in COP-themed uniforms. Electric powered shuttles and newly introduced electric taxis also bore COP 29 labels, cementing Azerbaijan’s role as the global focus for climate discussions. However, soon after leaving the airport glamor, I saw an oil drill hidden behind some trees. Then, I saw another one in the center of a neighborhood. And several others in neighborhoods and on the side of the roads. This situation undeniably highlighted Azerbaijan’s status as a petrostate hosting a climate conference.

Taxi zone outside of the Baku airport
Baku airport baggage claim with COP banner

This year’s COP follows COP 28, held in the UAE, where a spectacle of flashy tech was coupled with a major commitment to the “beginning of the end” of fossil fuels. At the same time, the UAE stands as a major oil producer and human rights abuser, undermining not only its credibility as a host but the credibility of COP as a whole. Notably, 2023 was the hottest year on record and 2024 is on track to top that record. A year later and nearly a decade after the Paris Agreement, fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach new record highs. Climate skeptics, like Javier Milei in Argentina and Donald Trump in the U.S., have risen to power, threatening the global climate commitments made thus far. Additionally, reports came out revealing that the COP 29 CEO, Elnur Soltanov, also a board member of SOCAR (Azerbaijan’s state oil company), reportedly used the event to secure fossil fuel deals. In the lead up to COP 29, many Azeri climate activists, economists, and political opponents were arrested. 

[SOCAR pavilion in the Green Zone of COP29. The Green Zone is a free but ticketed zone usually dedicated to civil society, youth, and businesses; however, this year it was predominately Azeri businesses]

After studying the UNFCCC frameworks earlier this semester, I felt prepared to engage with the COP processes. However, an increasing amount of information revealed the façade and greenwashing that COP enables for countries like Azerbaijan to do. My skepticism, however, wasn’t directed at the will of the people participating in COP but at the frameworks that allow petrostates and human rights violators to host such events, as well as allow an increasing number of fossil fuel lobbyists into the venue.

Despite its flaws, COP remains a vital space where hundreds of environmental defenders and climate justice activists—particularly those from the Global South and most effected by climate disasters—come together. They recognize the imperfections of host countries, COP frameworks, and innate slowness, but also view COP as an opportunity to organize, build capacity and solidarities, and use the global spotlight to draw attention to their realities. Entering COP, I experienced a mix of emotions, balancing these contradictions with a strange sense of anticipation.

Line to enter the opening ceremony plenary

At the opening ceremony, COP 29 President Mukhtar Babayev urged for enhanced ambition and action for climate finance, the mobilization of financial sources ranging from public to private sector contributions towards a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). While the previous NCQG was $100 billion (set in 2009), the acceleration of climate change disasters on developing countries has experts and activists’ expectations of the NCQG being in the trillions. Babayev also acknowledged that current policies are leading us to 3ºC warming, if not more. Despite this, the adoption of the agenda was significantly delayed to later in the evening, stalling negotiations and wasting valuable time.

Livestream in the overflow room of Mukhtar Babayev, President of COP29, speaking at the opening ceremony
Plenary room with screens displaying that the opening ceremony will resume at 19:00

Day 2 and 3 featured the World Leaders Summit. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s opening speech further underscored major contradictions. Criticizing “Western political hypocrisy” over Europe’s increased reliance on Azerbaijani oil and gas since the start of the Russian-Ukraine war, Aliyev doubled down on framing natural resources as god’s divine gifts (“gifts from God”), defending fossil fuel extraction, saying “we must also be realistic.” His tone also began to resemble that of authoritarian global leaders calling out “fake media” and took on a dissenting stance against those boycotting this year’s COP. I was even more disturbed when suddenly the plenary and overflow rooms broke out with applause following this statement.

Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, speaking at the World Leaders Summit
Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, speaking at the World Leaders Summit

UN Secretary-General António Guterres followed and captured the urgency, warning, “The clock is ticking. We are in the final countdown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5ºC.” Acknowledging the increasing global wealth inequality and it’s connections to climate change, Guterres said:

“This is a story of avoidable injustice. The rich cause the problem, the poor pay the highest price. Oxfam finds the richest billionaires emit more carbon in an hour and a half than the average person does in a lifetime.”

Climate change is inherently tied to the wealth inequality of capitalism. Those in the Global South, as well as individuals of lower socioeconomic status in the Global North, disproportionately bear the consequences. In other words, climate change doesn’t affect everyone equally—we are not all on the same boat. Throughout the evolution of the UNFCCC, the discourse has focused on the potential threats posed by climate change. However, for many marginalized communities, these threats are not abstract and have been manifesting itself as daily realities of violence, loss of life and worldviews.

Lanyard with activists’ NCQG expectation of $5 Trillion

Given that COP29 is the the “Finance COP,” it is crucial to connect the concentration of wealth among billionaires to climate change. Wealth is heavily concentrated in the hands of a few. The link between climate justice and economic justice is clearer than ever. Addressing climate change requires confronting the systemic mechanisms that allow the wealthy few to amass emissions-intensive wealth at the expense of the many who endure the consequences. This injustice is a form of violence on the behalf of the wealthy few (and the systems that enable this situation to occur) that views the rest, particularly the Global South, as disposable.

My goal throughout week 1 was to attend 2-3 negotiations on adaptation per day. I often felt confused, unsure on whether I was misunderstanding the process or if there was a lack of progress. Daily reports, along with the frustrated expressions on faces of negotiators and observers, confirmed my observations: there was a clear lack of action. At one point, I heard crickets, literally.

Negotiation on the global goal on adaptation

Regardless, it was valuable to witness firsthand the dynamics of negotiations. In the hallways, you could see negotiators huddled together like a sports team, strategizing their approaches. During one session, the African-Group called for a five-minute break to regroup, and suddenly, around 50 people gathered in the corner intensely discussing how to proceed.

At the same time, it was clear not all negotiators were equally active. In an event at the Ocean Pavilion titled “Ethical Horizons: Navigating Climate Intervention and Solutions” with Axel Michaelowa, Margaret Leinen, and Alia Hassan, they highlighted the capacity gaps in the Global South. Although the conversation was focused on technology, Hassan explained how the gaps in technology are also mirrored at COP in how some delegations are stretched thin, running between sessions due to their small size and others simply lack the capacity to defend their countries’ positions effectively. The adaptation negotiations I attended were largely dominated by the US, Australia, and African Group, while many remained silent.

“Ethical Horizons: Navigating Climate Intervention and Solutions” event at the Ocean Pavilion

Seeking meaningful engagement, I turned to the pavilions, where I found the Indigenous Peoples Pavilion. With four booths offering live interpretation ranging from Indigenous languages to Portuguese, the small pavilion space consisted of a vibrant energy of love and solidarity, despite being at the forefront of climate change disasters.

International Indigenous Peoples’ Forum on Climate Change pavilion opening

Here, panelists highlighted inequities in COP, where the Global North enjoys larger, better-equipped rooms, while marginalized groups fight for inclusion. However, they made it clear that being present is not enough but what matters is the capacity to advocate effectively. Namely, language barriers further exacerbate inequities, as English dominates and UNFCCC jargon often excludes those most impacted by climate change.

An event titled “Decoding UNFCCC Language” that I attended, provided a collaborative space to address these issues. Through case studies and group discussions, participants—including activists, scientists, and lawyers—demystified technical terms and ended with a chanting of “intergenerational climate justice” in every person’s native language. The event fostered connections across linguistic and cultural divides.

“Decoding UNFCCC Language” event featuring someone from my work group sharing definitions we came up with!!
Worksheet on defining Mitigation & Adaptation and Loss & Damage
Worksheet on defining the “Just Transition”

One of the most memorable events I attended was on Indigenous perspectives on carbon markets titled, “Carbon trading for whose benefit.” At the event, Ghazali Ohorella, the lead Indigenous Peoples Caucus negotiator for Article 6, reiterated the concerns and objection of carbon markets. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes a market solution to address climate change through the buying and selling of mitigation outcomes. Indigenous Peoples and other climate activists and lawyers argue that this market mechanism allows polluters to buy offsets rather than truly mitigate their emissions. Ohorella stands for the Caucus’s positions but also recognized the clear dismissal of Indigenous voices, saying that another one of their core efforts is ensuring the “free, prior, and informed consent” from the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples is upheld. Due to the finance nature of this year’s COP, Article 6 is a major focus and its quick adoption has brought up several concerns on its integrity.

 Indigenous Peoples’ pavilion on carbon markets with Ghazali Ohorella

Ohorella continued to mention how although there is a rightful hesitancy among Indigenous Peoples to engage in carbon markets, learning about it is essential as it can be leveraged as a tool for sovereignty. He referenced the ways in which the Yurok Tribe used California’s carbon offsets program to buy their land back.

At the pavilion, I had a conversation with Tom Goldtooth, the executive director of the Indigenous Environmental Network. He’s attended all COPs, except for the ones he’s been banned at due to his organizing efforts and criticism of the UNFCCC and carbon trading. He also pointed out at how activists like him are censored while the number of fossil fuel lobbyists grow every year. In the UNFCCC, every comma, letter, and space carries significant weight. Goldtooth highlighted how Indigenous Peoples organized to ensure the inclusion of the plural “s” in “Indigenous Peoples” as a deliberate effort to remind negotiators, who too often overlook their voices, that they stand as a collective.

“Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Annual Youth Round Table” event, featuring Tom Goldtooth speaking. He’s also right in front of me in the light pink shirt!

At a press conference with Earthworks, Indigenous Peoples from different social cultural regions from the Amazon to the Artic gathered to present principles and protocols for a true just transition. Many recounted the ways in which “Just Transition” projects essentially became landgrabs by corporations backed by the state and military. “All these big geopolitical power wars between China and the US and Mexico, are felt back home by Indigenous Peoples,” said Nicole Yanes in reference to the Plan de Sonora. She also noted that at the summit to prepare the principles and protocols, many Indigenous Peoples found similarities and in fact are facing the same companies, tactics, and strategies that violate their rights. Again, they reiterated the importance of the “free, prior, and informed consent” of Indigenous Peoples as being core to having a Just Transition. In other words, their rights are not optional and lives are not disposable. Janene Yazzie, ended the press conference, calling not for a just transition, but a just transformation.

Earthworks press conference

I also attended a discussion on the criminalization of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities. The speakers presented a map highlighting where earth defenders are killed, with Latin America being the deadliest. Colombia and Brazil were the highest, but the Congo and Philippines were also amongst the top. 

Criminalization of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities event with the map highlighting where earth defenders are killed in the background

Juan Carlos Jintiach, a shuar leader from the Ecuadorian Amazon and Nobel Peace Prize nominee, stated, “We are threats, threats to the global system, and that’s why we’re being killed.” Other speakers also drew connections between state and corporate violence, especially in the context of mineral extraction for the “just transition.” Another speaker emphasized: “We are not against the just transition, as some portray us. What we demand is self-determination; free, prior, and informed consent; and the dignity of Indigenous Peoples to be respected.

As I was heading out for the day, I noticed a large crowd gathered at the Global Center on Adaptation pavilion. I decided to stop and see what was happening not realizing that the people were there for the catered reception. While four women were being honored for their locally led adaptation efforts, the vast majority of people in the crowd were on their phones waiting for the reception to follow. Among one of the speakers was Lastiana Yuliandari, the founder of Aliet Green, a women-owned enterprise based in Yogyakarta, Indonesia focused on empowering local farmers through regenerative organic agriculture and the promotion of fair trade practices. I was captivated by her work and spoke to her following the event

Global Center on Adaptation pavilion honoring four locally-led adaptation efforts led by women. Lastiana Yuliandari is in the middle with blue highlights!

She shared her story, explaining how following her undergraduate studies, “just like you right-now,” she initially worked for NGOs—a path she was encouraged to follow. However, she grew frustrated with the way these organizations would move from one project to another without any meaningful sustainable work being implemented, often being led by outsiders to the communities. Instead of continuing, she found her own path, returned to her community, and empowered women, who do the brunt of the farming labor in her hometown.

Activists, from lawyers to youth, continued to protest at this year’s COP, representing voices from across the globe. While it was inspiring to witness, I noticed how thousands of people simply walked by the protests without a glance and even scolded demonstrators with an unwillingness to listen. At finance and investment-focused events I attended, speakers often emphasized the need of including voices of the Global South, farmers, and Indigenous Peoples so they’re “not just the ones protesting.” I found this contradictory, as many of the protestors were the same people leading critical discussions in panels and engaging directly with stakeholders.

Ojibwe Elder Great Grandmother Mary Lyons, for example, actively participated in protests and also moderated a session with high-level officials like Senior Advisor to the President John Podesta and Acting Deputy Administrator of the EPA Jane Nishida. Similarly, members of the Palestinian youth delegation, who I saw speak at multiple panels and negotiations, also met with Antonio Guterres and the Green Climate Fund. Other activists also made a heavy presence in negotiation rooms as observers, diligently taking notes. The voices of the Global South, farmers, and Indigenous Peoples are here and have been here. They make themselves heard through negotiations, high-profile panels, and protests.

It seemed like these protests were dismissed for their disruptions rather than being understood for their intent—to challenge the norms that have driven record fossil fuel emissions, granted lobbyists disproportionate influence, caused record-breaking temperatures, and perpetuated human rights abuses. Disruption of the status quo that the UNFCCC and COP has upheld is the intention.

This brought me back to something else that Tom Goldtooth shared at a panel: “They will divide us [(Indigenous Peoples and the Global South)]—by bringing the ‘good Indian’ to the table, rather than those who will demand the systemic changes and serious conversations we truly need.”

The protestor’s demands were clear: guaranteeing public finance, reducing the private sector’s dominance; stopping genocide and ecocide; ensuring free, prior, and informed consent; and securing $5 trillion for the NCQG.

 Itemized climate invoice with different climate change disasters with different countries names whitened out as per COP demonstration guidelines
Demonstration on accelerating climate finance with signs reading “TRILLIONS NOT BILLIONS,” “FILL THE LOSS AND DAMAGE FUND NOW,” “GLOBAL NORTH GOVERNMENTS, YOU OWE US.” The itemized list lays on the floor. One of the protestors is chanting using a bullhorn indoors.
Demonstration calling for an end to genocide and ecocide in Palestine with a big sign reading “STOP FUELING GENOCIDE” and smaller ones reading “NO CLIMATE JUSTICE WITH BLOOD ON OUR LANDS” and “DEMILITARISATION, COLLECTIVE LIBERATION”. The demonstration ended with singing and humming.

As Guterres said, “Time is not one our side,” and the lack of action I witnessed during week one was deeply concerning. However, there is so much happening on the ground, led by frontline communities. COP29, just like all past and future COPs, cannot afford to be a failure. The growing number of officials, such as Swat alumnae, fellow Soc/Anth major, and former UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres—chief negotiator of the Paris Agreement—critiquing COP for enabling human rights abusers and petrostates is a hopeful sign. It shows that people are noticing the contradictions and flaws of the systems they themselves are part of.

While Indigenous Peoples, the Global South, and other vulnerable communities have long understood these issues, more people are finally waking up. The urgency for ambition and meaningful action has never been greater.

Blending Finance, Bridging Gaps: How COP29 is Redefining Climate Action

by Mahika Shergill ’26, Honors Economics & Environmental Studies

BAKU, Nov 15 – At the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), held in Baku, Azerbaijan, finance is taking center stage as global leaders, climate advocates, and representatives from the public and private sectors discuss ways to scale up financial commitments to combat climate change. Dubbed the “Finance COP,” COP29 has prioritized the mobilization of significant climate finance to meet the urgent needs of mitigation and adaptation. Central to these discussions is the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance, intended to replace the previous $100 billion annual commitment made at COP15 in 2009.

The NCQG aims to recognize the enormous financial demands of effective climate action. Initial estimates suggest that climate action requires at least $1 trillion annually, with some projections reaching higher to meet ambitious climate goals. The NCQG not only sets a new target but also shifts the approach from a purely public-funded framework to one that encourages substantial private sector contributions — by the end of the two weeks, the COP Presidency and 198 parties attending hope to reach consensus on what this NCQG means for the climate and its people, and how much money will be committed to it. 

As a junior studying economics and environmental studies with a particular interest in climate policy and law, I tracked discussions around climate finance and carbon markets during week one of COP29. Over the 25+ events and negotiations I attended over the course of the week, a key idea that was repeatedly talked about was the collaborative potential between governments, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and the private sector, all working to unlock the financial flows necessary for meaningful climate progress.

Cross-Sector Collaboration: Public-Private Partnerships as a Catalyst for Climate Finance

At COP29, the necessity of private finance for impactful climate action was a recurring theme. Public funds alone are insufficient to meet the vast investment requirements for a low-carbon transition; therefore, COP29 discussions frequently focused on how to engage private capital effectively. The NCQG itself aims to shift from a purely public-funded model to a framework that prioritizes robust public-private partnerships, emphasizing private sector participation as central to meeting climate targets.

A key insight from the panels came from discussions on the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has catalyzed significant private investment in clean energy both domestically and internationally. Karen Fang, Managing Director and Global Head of Sustainable Finance at Bank of America, noted the IRA’s role in sparking what she called a “manufacturing renaissance” within the U.S., with renewables like solar energy storage becoming one of the most cost-effective energy sources. Both BP and ExxonMobil, traditionally seen as fossil fuel giants, have publicly recognized the economic opportunities in clean energy, suggesting that their investments are not only about compliance but are also driven by the profitability and long-term stability that renewable energy offers — this has meant that companies plan to maintain their climate investments regardless of potential shifts in U.S. or global politics. Ali Zaidi, White House National Climate Advisor, underscored this resilience, noting that the momentum from the IRA and other climate commitments is too entrenched to be reversed by changes in administration.

Governor of Washington State, Jay Inslee, and White House National Climate Advisor, Ali Zaidi, at a US Pavilion event on sub-national level climate action and the Inflation Reduction Act.

The collaboration between governments, MDBs, and private investors continues to be identified as crucial to mobilizing climate finance at scale. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank,  elaborated on this approach, emphasizing that MDBs are positioned to act as “first risk-takers” in sustainable finance initiatives. Through platforms like the soon-to-be-launched Frontiers Opportunity Fund, the World Bank is setting up guarantee mechanisms to absorb early-stage investment risks, making projects in renewable energy and infrastructure more appealing to private capital. By leveraging public and philanthropic funds in this way, MDBs aim to de-risk high-impact projects in middle-income countries, offering private investors a clear pathway to sustainable returns.

‘Unlocking Financing for the Green Transition in Emerging and Developing Economies’ at the World Bank and IMF Pavilion with Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, CEO of Masdar, Nadia Calviño, President of the European Investment Bank, Ajay Banja, President of the World Bank, and Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (left to right).

This collaborative model resonates across private sector perspectives as well. Rich Lesser, Global CEO of the Boston Consulting Group, highlighted that consistency in public-private collaboration is key to scaling these efforts. He pointed out that a stable regulatory landscape and clear policy signals allow businesses to confidently commit to long-term, high-impact projects. Similarly, Andrew Forrest, Executive Chairman of Fortescue Metals Group, noted that Fortescue’s decarbonization strategy had proven financially viable without relying on offsets or carbon capture, underscoring how profitable low-carbon ventures can become within the right partnership frameworks.

High-level Panel facilitated by the World Economic Forum on the interplay between private and public finance.

By facilitating these collaborations, week one of COP29 has showcased how public-private partnerships serve as more than just financial support. They are a means to harness the expertise, resources, and influence of private entities, turning climate finance into a scalable, profitable venture that aligns with global climate goals.

Carbon Markets as a Pathway for Private Sector Involvement

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement which I track closely — carbon markets — emerged as a critical area for engaging private finance in climate solutions. The first day of the conference marked a breakthrough with the operationalization of Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, setting the stage for a globally regulated carbon market. This development has sparked significant interest among private sector participants, who view carbon markets as a key entry point for scaling their climate impact while accessing profitable opportunities in emissions reduction.

Carbon markets allow companies to invest in emissions reduction projects and trade carbon credits, creating a financial incentive for lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Simon Fellermeyer, Article 6 negotiator for Switzerland, emphasized during a panel that the successful implementation of Article 6.4 allows countries and companies to engage in international carbon markets with greater confidence. With established standards and removal guidance, this mechanism provides transparency and legitimacy to carbon credit transactions — factors that are crucial for private investors seeking stable returns.

For many companies, carbon markets represent an opportunity to align financial goals with sustainability commitments. Rachel Mountain, speaking at an event titled, Connecting the Dots between Policymakers in the Global South and the International Private Sector, noted that policy and regulatory clarity are essential for attracting large-scale private investment, as it enables companies to project long-term financial returns without fearing abrupt policy shifts. However, she also emphasized that fragmented regulations across regions could deter investors, stressing the need for a harmonized approach to carbon markets.

Beyond the corporate level, carbon markets offer developing countries a pathway to access private finance. Through revenue generated by carbon credits, countries can fund sustainable projects that might otherwise remain financially unviable. Tajiel Urioh from South Pole explained at the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) Pavilion how carbon credits provide critical financial support for locally tailored projects in low- and middle-income countries. He highlighted the importance of setting up robust national registries to coordinate with international regimes, ensuring that carbon credit revenue flows effectively and sustainably to support these communities.

Despite the optimism, negotiations around the specifics of carbon market regulations are ongoing. Indigenous communities and climate justice advocates have expressed concerns about carbon markets, fearing they may lead to exploitation of land and resources without adequate protections for local populations. Many argue that, without strict safeguards, carbon markets could enable companies to offset emissions without making meaningful reductions, thus allowing “business-as-usual” emissions in wealthier countries. These voices are pushing for continued dialogue and accountability measures within carbon market frameworks to ensure they uphold equity and respect for Indigenous lands and livelihoods — it will be key to see how Article 6.2 and 6.4 negotiations end by week two. 

The Path Forward: Mobilizing Trillions for Effective Climate Action

COP29’s discussions have underscored the vast scale of resources required to meet the NCQG and address the global climate finance gap. With projected funding needs estimated in the trillions, this COP has seen strong calls for wealthier, developed nations to increase their financial commitments. Many countries from the Global South, backed by climate justice advocates and protest groups at COP29, have stressed that high-emitting nations — particularly G20 members — should contribute a larger share, given their historic and ongoing emissions. The principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” remains central, asserting that while all nations have a role, those with greater resources and historical emissions bear a heightened obligation to lead in funding climate solutions.

To meet these ambitious goals, private sector investment is seen as critical. Nadia Calviño, President of the European Investment Bank, speaking on green bonds and debt-for-climate swaps, emphasized that innovative financing methods are vital to meaningfully involve private investors. Similarly, a high-level panel held by the World Economic Forum discussed the importance of streamlined permitting, consistent carbon pricing, and risk mitigation strategies to create an investment-friendly landscape, particularly in infrastructure and energy sectors.

As I look ahead to week two, I will be closely following the continued negotiations surrounding the NCQG, which will ultimately determine the scale and structure of global climate finance commitments. The outcome of COP29 will be crucial in shaping how effectively the world mobilizes to fund a sustainable future, with the balance of public and private finance likely to serve as a determining factor.

COP29: There is Yet Hope

By: Prof. James Padilioni, Jr.

“Africa is NOT the Global South! Africa is the center of the world!” So exclaimed an attendee at the Yasunize Movement demonstration I observed at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Yasuní is a national park located in the Ecuadorean Amazon which UNESCO has declared a world biosphere reserve in recognition that Yasuní features the highest biodiversity of any singular ecosystem on our planet. In August 2023, the Ecuadorian people voted to halt all future oil drilling within the borders of Yasuní National Park, representing a threshold moment for a true transition away from a fossil fuel economy that does not involve the abstract mathematical manipulation of instruments via a carbon market. As such, “to Yasunize” has emerged as a new rallying cry for an environmental geopolitics that questions economic growth and dependence on oil as the only markers of development. Thus, it was evocative for this demonstration at COP29 to signal not only a new paradigm for just transition, but to reorient our global compass and our directional imagination of civilization away from the North-South stratification that constantly places the Global South in a position of extraction and need relative the political economic imperialism of the Global North, specifically North Atlantic modernity in its Euro-American latitudinal influence. In this new cartography of climate action, neither Africa nor Ecuador are the “Global South” relative to an overdeveloped Global North; these locations, and the stalwart climate activists that call them home, are the center of the world, leading us into whatever semblance of a sustainable future we may yet bequeath posterity — if we are so lucky.

Yasunize the World Demonstration @ COP29



I open this year’s reflections on COP29 for the Swarthmore @ COP blog with this anecdote because it signals the indomitable energy of resolution that many negotiators and delegates from the so-called Global South have taken upon themselves, especially in light of the impending second administration of Donald Trump. Our week 1 delegation left Swarthmore just 4 days after Election Day, traveling to Baku, Azerbaijan in a swirl of affect that threatened to derail the intentions of COP29 before it even began. Here, it may be useful to refresh our memory of “the long national nightmare” that was Trump 1.0: less than 18 months after the historic adoption of the Paris Agreement of 2015, President Trump pulled the United States from complying with our Nationally Determined Contributions both in our attempts to scale-down our fossil fuel dependence as well as our pledges to provide financing and cash payments to those developing nations of the Global South who need variously to adapt, mitigate, and/or respond to the losses and damages of climate change and extreme weather events. During the first Trump administration, the common sense sentiment began to emerge that it was necessary for the US, as the world’s largest and most-developed economy, to “reclaim the global lead” on climate action, with the lack of such leadership representing a stumbling block to the climate governance regime enacted by the UNFCCC. (The folks who honestly spout such rhetoric are usually blind to the American exceptionalism of their argument, and the patronizing, Marshall Plan-style way it addresses the globe, but I digress). The United States remained out of compliance with the Paris Agreement until President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in climate resiliency in US history. President Biden, thus, made a triumphal return to COP27 in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt, where he gave a speech from the plenary hall to thunderous applause. Now, just 2 years later, and with only 12-15% of the IRA’s funding appropriations actually paid out, the United States is, once again, on the brink of puling out of the Paris Agreement, and perhaps from leaving the UNFCCC regime entirely.

(I am old enough to have been a perspicacious 7th grader who observed President Clinton sign the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the first binding multinational agreement on climate emerging from the UNFCCC. I am also old enough to have been a 10th grader who remembers the newly-elected President George W. Bush refuse to cooperate with Kyoto, and I recall the 95-0 senate vote against its ratification. The UNFCCC has watched the United States, like a geopolitical pendulum, swing both ways many times before, flaunting the climactic reality and thumbing its nose at the world.)

Environmental and Energy Study Institute Press Conference Panel featuring American politicians/policy makers

Thus, one might speculate the mood at COP29 would be grim, pessimistic, forlorn even. But instead, the energy here is one of urgent confidence, as the rest of the 198 Parties to the Conference are resolved to fill the void left by the withdrawal of Trump’s America from the global world. Indeed, one might even detect a whiff of “good riddance” on the part of the Parties who remain, steadfast in their conviction that we are the last generation of humans who can effectively hold planetary warming to an average increase of 1.5 degrees celsius (perhaps 2.0 would be a more realistic, yet less ideal benchmark).

To this end, the delegates and observers — including Swarthmore’s week 1 students — have engaged the conference in eager pursuit of keeping the intended goals of COP29, namely, settling the business of the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), a plan first agreed upon in 2015 to set a new goal building upon the floor of $100 B USD. Beginning in 2021, an ad hoc work program was established to facilitate technical discussions around the NCQG and to take stock of progress made in 2022 and 2023. The plan for this year is to tabulate these needs and set the NCQG — with or without the United States, this work must continue.

But what, exactly, is to become of the United States? I observed a press conference panel hosted by the Environmental and Energy Study Institute featuring Serena McIlwain, the Secretary of Environment for the state of Maryland, Wade Crowfoot from the California Natural Resources Agency, and Melissa Logan, mayor of Blytheville, AR, located along the banks of the mighty Mississippi River. These three American politicians and policymakers — two Black women and one indigenous man — instigated renewed hope as they confidently and boldly projected a plan of action at the state and local municipal levels to mobilize “boots on the ground” in support of maintaining America’s NDCs, despite the Trump Administration’s impending dereliction of duty. In particular, Mayor Logan passionately promoted the Mississippi River Cities and Town Initiative which includes a bipartisan collaboration between over 150 mayors whose towns and cities line the Mississippi River, one of the world’s most critical lifelines, a waterway whose transited goods supply 1/12 of the globe’s population with their necessary provisions. The work of sustainability will continue because it must!

Across the next two weeks, two groups of Swarthmore students will observe the proceedings of COP29, networking with likeminded advocates and documenting the progress of the NCQG. This blog will feature several of their reflections and form a digital guide for the broader Swarthmore community to follow. Additionally, our students will takeover the Swarthmore Instagram page, and we are planning a spring 2025 on-campus panel to help contextualize the stakes of COP29 for our local campus and borough community. Be sure to follow along!

Bridging Collaborations at COP28 and in College 

This story was submitted by Clara Kilburn (she/her), ’24 Chinese Language major at Pomona College, who connected with the Swarthmore student delegation for the COP28 program.

At COP conferences, a large number of countries have dedicated pavilions. At COP28, this took the form of spaces in identical buildings laid throughout the venue. Depending on the country, pavilions hosted presentations on climate issues faced and modes of solving them in the respective country. 

The U.S. Center was clearly one of the more popular ones, reflecting the large number of Americans at COP28 and the fact that many foreign nationals were interested in U.S. issues. From my perspective as an American attendee, the U.S. Center illustrated the ways that the U.S., (for better or worse) is critically important in the climate crisis. In a multipolar world, the U.S. still holds outsized influence in global politics and is one of the largest per capita greenhouse gas emitters. 

One of the events I attended at the U.S. Center was hosted by the Conservative Climate Foundation, advertised as a “Fireside chat with House Republicans about how the House Energy and Commerce Committee is working to advance a new era of innovation and American leadership to reduce emissions, bolster energy security, and raise the country’s standard of living”. The official recording of the event can be watched here. 

The event featured Rep. Kelly Armstrong  (R-ND), Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA), and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA). 

During the event, listening to the Representatives, I felt a bit like a small fish in a big pond at COP28. I became acutely aware of what had been missing in my experience of COP28 thus far. The Republican Representatives’ personas were distinctly different from previous Americans I had interacted with at COP28. Rep. Buddy Carter’s striking southern accent was particularly notable. I realized that as a Michigander and current student of a very politically liberal California school (Pomona!) attending COP28 with the logistical support from another school with a liberal-leaning student body (Swarthmore!), I had not thus far pursued opportunities to listen to people of a “conservative” political background talk about their concern for the climate and their strategies for solving problems. 

The U.S. House Republicans talked about their personal passions for protecting the environment and their sincere belief that protecting the environment is also crucial for protecting the American economy and security. Rep. Miller-Meeks at one point made a contentious comment that startled the room, to which a couple of individuals who looked not unlike me (young women at COP, possibly fellow college students) walked out of the room in protest. I too was initially shocked at the comment, but after listening to what she had to say afterwards realized she didn’t mean to “stir the pot” and went on to say less controversial, and rather in my opinion, quite rational comments. 

During these few minutes of her speech, I faced the daunting realization that too many conversations along those of different ideological backgrounds and with different ideas in the climate space are shut down before they even begin. 

At COP28, this phenomenon appeared to happen more broadly as people (scientists, entrepreneurs, engineers, social scientists) who work on the same issues and likely have the same opinions, can connect, network, and collaborate during the two weeks of COP. Those who don’t agree don’t have to interact as they follow different negotiations, attend different side events, and have different professional networks. Social cliques and professional huddles of people were plentiful all around COP28. 

This experience made me think about how the most formal global pursuits to fight climate change rest on agreement between all nations (political negotiations) but more collaborative productive action among groups who think differently is potentially lacking. Not just global pursuits, but also U.S. pursuits against climate change that involve various groups. Collaborative efforts among the diverse peoples of the U.S. in the fight against climate may also be lacking, and this House Republican event helped me reflect on the following:

The USA, being a critically important country in the global progress of fighting climate change, unfortunately cannot meet holistic climate goals if only the “blue” states do so. So, in the current state of partisan politics, the climate crisis needs to not be a blue issue and rather a bipartisan one. The only way for it to become a bipartisan issue is for it to include, and welcome, “Republican” voices and others stereotypically thought of as being “disbelievers” and enemies of those who care for the environment. 

At COP28 there was a guiding concern in many of the discussions about the negotiations that the state of global environmental protection efforts are currently “not enough”. Observing this phenomenon of those who think alike grouping together at COP, and realizing the lack of diverse representation of Americans at COP28 from the event, it became clear to me that the climate crisis isn’t going to be solved with the people already engaged in climate working harder, it is going to be solved when more people are engaged in climate. 

This experience and subsequent realizations at COP28 have significantly impacted my professional goals. As I’m completing  my last semester at Pomona Spring 2024, I’m hoping to engage with others who are different from me now and post-graduation. I hope to further discover how I can contribute to motivating and bringing others into the climate space. 

In addition to the great experience of attending COP itself, I think the structure and activities at COP can also serve as an example to students of what they might be missing in their Swarthmore/Pomona/College experience – whatever that may be for each student as we sort out where we fit best to support the global fight against climate change. 

Environmental Defenders are Forgotten by COP

“Environmental defenders are forgotten by COP.”

David Munene, the Programs Manager of the Catholic Youth Network for Environmental Sustainability in Africa opens this panel discussion with these harrowing words in a room where many of those forgotten sit. 

Let me set the scene for you some. I am at one of the many COP28 side events where  panel discussions of any and all topics relating to the environment take place. While I specifically chose to go to this event, I couldn’t have expected the impact it would have on me and how grateful I will continue to be to have been in that space. The event, “Youth Rising in Solidarity for Environmental Defenders and Safeguarding Lives, Nature and the Future”  was a storytelling event that shared lived experiences of a few youth environmental defenders. According to the UN, environmental defenders are “individuals and groups who, in their personal or professional capacity and in a peaceful manner, strive to protect and promote human rights relating to the environment, including water, air, land, flora and fauna.”

“They offer you protection where there is none to be offered.”, Munene says in his introduction.

As you can see from the above photos, the panel chairs at the front of the room were empty. Unlike every other panel event I went to all the panelists were scattered throughout the audience seats. It was made clear by the event hosts that speakers should be at the same level of the audience, not above them. Wow. It is easy to forget the hierarchical and authoritative practices that seem to weave throughout almost everything we do. But this emphasis on having all individuals on the same footing begins to show you the extreme power this room holds to unravel the institutions that seek to destroy them. There were five speakers in total and I will highlight some of their stories. 

Nansedalia Ramirez is a youth leader from Mexico. She says that her and her community have suffered due to mining and hydropower.  Her home is among the forests. Her home is being logged and destroyed, and due to her activism she has faced several threats.

“As youth, we want to unite our voice, voices who can’t be heard, who are putting their lives in danger on a daily basis.” – Nansedalia Ramirez

“A young girl is being threatened for carrying the heart of the community.” – David Munene

Nidia’s family was forcefully displaced due to hydropower infrastructure in 1974. She wasn’t able to learn her own language. Her people lost their traditions, their dances, their culture, their food sovereignty. Her organization works to recover everything they lost. It was from her father that she inherited this fight and fighting spirit. Her father had been imprisoned due to his activism and his fight for his people’s rights and land tenure. She hopes to convince other youth to also continue this fight and to fight for their ancestors. 

“Someone will publish a language that was lost…How do you discover a language that was lost?” -David Munene

Munene then ends with asking a woman named Annabelle to come up to the front to play violin for an “intermission” to “heal the soul.” The song is called “The End of the World”.   

The last speaker I will highlight and the last of the speakers was Ina-Maria. She is from Namibia but was born in exile in Angola during the liberation struggle against South African apartheid occupation in Namibia. Her father, a commander, was killed in the war from a car bomb. She grew up in a refugee camp for a few years before being displaced to the former East Germany in 1985. This is why she speaks German as well now. Growing up in East Germany, she was told to fight capitalism from a young age, something she still holds in her heart now.

After 1990, she returned home to Namibia but notes that she “never really felt at home”. She was too black for the White elite in Namibia but too white for Black people there. 

She found her passion in fashion design, but knew that she could not work in the fashion industry. She could not look past the industry’s exploration of the environment and of people, so she found her calling in community work.

In 2020, a Canadian company was going to begin fracking for oil and gas in the Kavango Basin. She felt betrayed. The actual people living there, never benefited or gained anything from the war. And since independence, the government has been captured more and more by corporate powers.

“But for me, you are not going to touch the Kavango. That is our homeland.”

Namibia is a very dry country, the Kavango delta is the only place they can grow food. It is the home to several endangered species. But it is also home of the first nations, to the San people. They are hunter gatherers who depend on their land. 

Since many knew of her father and many of the kids that were exiled have become part of the elite community, she actually got a call from the Secretary General of the ruling party (who was actually her neighbor and someone she thought of as a friend before) to intimidate her from her activism. Unfortunately it did not stop there. After organizing a protest where they went to an UNESCO office, since the basin is an UNESCO heritage site, a PR person from UNESCO used their profile to get information about Ina Maria. This was a further attempt to intimidate and silence her and her efforts.   

This Canadian company did zero community engagement early on. Without a newspaper article that came out about the fracking, no one in the community would have known. So when they were finally forced to start doing community engagement, Ina Maria went to one of the events. She asked them about their lack of community engagement, putting them on the spot. On her way out, she was approached by two police officers. They wanted to arrest her for causing a disturbance. She said she didn’t know how she got the strength, but she pulled out her phone and started filming them and told them to leave her alone. They got so scared that they let her go. But this was just a start, unfortunately. At COP26 she was chased and intimidated. She was able to speak before Greta Thunberg spoke, and was able to raise awareness about the campaign. After the conferences she had to stay behind for several weeks to do security training and other security measures. Even when she goes to a club or a restaurant she sees people taking photos of her that she knows are part of the oil industry. This happened that week as well during COP28. But no matter the threat and the difficulty, she is not afraid. 

“Fear is not something in our hearts. I don’t even know what fear is. I just know I have to defend my homeland. There is space for a better world.”

Annabelle is then invited back up and is asked to also introduce herself. She is a young woman from Hong Kong who uses music to spread the message about climate change. “Music is always a tool to inspire, to empower people.”

Her second and final song is titled “Heal The World”.

“This event shows me why I am here.” – a man from west Papua says about COP when the floor is opened up for anyone to speak. 

Munene ends the panel part, reminding everyone to “Now give names to environmental defenders…they are not just a statistic”, and to “call out their names when we need courage.” Environmental defenders; “they are just like you and I, but they are not afraid.” Fear isn’t in the vocabulary of environmental defenders. They knowingly put their lives in danger everyday fighting for the environment and the people. But they cannot stop, because if they dont fight, then who will fight for them? They continue to fight after seeing their land destroyed and threatened over and over again. But they prove their immense power and ability to organize, and protect the people and land over and over again. 

For the last five minutes of the event, everyone is asked to stand up and to hold hands with the person to your left and right. We all end up in a big circle of sorts and are led through a spoken meditation. We are all reminded once again of the power love holds in all of us. To use love in our fight and let it flow throughout us as we go into the world. I close my eyes and take in all the feelings and emotions I have felt and seen today. It’s truly beautiful. I may not know the two people I am holding hands with nor all the people in the room personally, but I do know we all hold the same love and want to protect. I leave the room with nothing but hope.

I am a little bit outside the camera view but that’s my hand being held on the right side!

“There is no climate justice without human rights”: The People’s Plenary

By: Emmy Li’25 (she/her)

Grandmother Mary Lyons, Anishinaabe-Ojibwe Elder, from the Indigenous Peoples Organization giving the opening speech at the People’s Plenary.

For the second year in a row, the Swarthmore delegation attended the People’s Plenary, a large gathering of civil society representatives making their voices and demands heard. Similar to COP27, this event was nowhere to be found on the UNFCCC COP28 Daily Programme schedule despite being an official UN sanctioned event. However, after learning of it in group chats, we officially marked it on our calendars and excitedly attended. 

The People’s Plenary, by far, did not disappoint. After spending nearly two weeks sitting in on stalled negotiations or witnessing the constant greenwashing around the venue, it was rejuvenating to hear the voices of those fighting climate change on the frontlines. Representatives from Indigenous Peoples, youth, women and gender constituencies, environmental NGOs, trade unions, and farmers all came together to give impassioned speeches calling for real climate solutions – ones that recognize Indigenous rights, labor rights, land rights, and human dignity. Hearing their voices gave me hope that we will find real solutions to combat climate change. That eventual fossil fuel phase out is possible despite parties blocking it from happening in negotiations currently. 

A noticeable theme across speeches at the People’s Plenary this year was a calling for the immediate ceasefire in Palestine. During the opening speech, the co-chair started by stating that she is from Palestine. Immediately, the whole room erupted into cheers of support and solidarity that continued for more than a minute. The calls for solidarity with Palestinians continued throughout the People’s Plenary, despite the regulations put in place by the UNFCCC Secretariat. I later learned from an organizer with the Climate Action Network (CAN) Australia that protests at COP28 are all strictly approved, controlled, and enforced. In regards to support for Palestine, protestors are not allowed to mention Palestine by name (despite the State of Palestine having a designated pavilion), cannot chant “From the River to the Sea,” and can only call for a “Ceasefire” but NOT “Ceasefire Now”. If protestors violate these restrictions, they risk having their badge taken away and being barred from attending COPs in the future. Despite these restrictions, those who spoke at the People’s Plenary asserted their voices to echo the overall theme that “there is no climate justice without human rights.” 

Image from a protest earlier in the week. Notice how the sign can only display “Ceasefire” but cannot display “Ceasefire Now.”

Given the various moving speeches, I would like to take the rest of this blog post and dedicate it to sharing the voice of the people. Representatives from all across the globe emphasized their extreme frustration with the existing UNFCCC system, a need for a just transition, and an overhaul of the existing capitalist, exploitative system that causes marginalized BIPOC communities to suffer the most at the hands of rich countries in the Global North.

From the Co-Chairs of the People’s Plenary:

  • “There is no climate justice, without human rights” 
  • “Ceasefire Now!” 
  • “What has Palestine got to do with climate change? It has everything to do with climate change! It is the very same system that is responsible for climate change and colonialism.”
Image of a protest from a video that was shown during the People’s Plenary. Given that protestors cannot mention Palestine by name, people have resorted to holding up posters of watermelon as a symbol of Palestinian resistance and persistence.

From the Representatives of the Indigenous Peoples Organizations (IPO) Constituency: 

  • “I am the water and the water is me. I am the fire and the fire is me. I am the air and the air is me. I am the earth and the earth is me.” 
  • “You cannot put a price on humanity and nature.”
  • “Earth, air, fire, water show no prejudice. Greed, greed created that.”
  • “We are the regions [Global South] that have the most killings just because we defend our lands.”
  • “When they talk about nature based solutions, we are part of the relationship with nature to engage in activities. We are the solutions.”
  • “We should stop commodifying indigenous territories, Indigenous lands. We are not an economic resource for the system and we will fight towards the end.”
  • “We are not here as passive observers, but experts, custodians of knowledge.” 

From the Representatives of the Youth (YOUNGO): 

  • Naomi, a 13 year old girl from South Sudan:
    • “I come from a country where children’s rights are being deprived because of flooding.”
    • “We’ve attended 28 COPs but nothing has been implemented from what we speak.” 
    • “If there was action, children wouldn’t die in rural areas, there wouldn’t be hunger in places.”
  • Roa, a youth from Sudan:
    • “An error does not become a mistake until we refuse to correct it.”
    • “If we don’t work together to save the environment, we will be equally extinct.”
Image of a protest from a video that was shown during the People’s Plenary.

From the Representatives of Trade Unions (TUNGO):

  • Joy Hernandez, a trade union worker in the Philippines:
    • “There is no just transition without labor rights.”
    • ”A just transition must be an opportunity to uphold our dignity.”
  • Bert Del Wel, the head of TUNGO:
    • “A just transition is about solidarity and justice. It’s about a decent life and jobs for everyone and everywhere. It’s about justice in and for Palestine. It’s about cooperation and support for equality and protection of the rights of Indigenous Peoples.” 
    • “We need organized workers. We need collective bargaining, social dialogue, and a social protection system to deliver this climate justice.” 

From the Representatives of FARMERS Constituency: 

  • “We need protection of land rights, because land is the fundamental source of life.”
  • “How many people at this COP talk about land as the source of everything we need. They talk about markets. They talk about oil. They talk about money. Yet land is where we are rooted.”
  • “The agribusinesses that are here today trying to say that they provide the solutions to feeding the planet in the place of increasing climate chaos are not the ones providing the real solutions. The small scale farmers are.”
  • “They thought they could bury us, but they didn’t know that we were seeds. And that’s exactly what small scale farmers do. They provide the seeds of the future. When you bury us, we will grow.”
Audio from Ayshka Najib’s speech on behalf of the Women and Gender Constituency

From the Representatives of the Women and Gender Constituency: 

  • “There cannot be climate justice on occupied land.” 
  • “The elephant in the room is demilitarization.” 
  • “We are tired of being your bargaining chips.”
  • “We call resistance. [Repeated in Arabic]. We call liberation. [Repeated in Arabic]. We call equity. [Repeated in Arabic].”
  • “The silence and global north organization in positions of power is unbearable. The limitations on freedom of speech imposed in this space by the UNFCCC are left on the shoulders of the civil society movement is unacceptable and beyond paid for.“

From a Representative of an organization to demand climate justice: 

  • “La tierra no se vende, la tierra se defiende.” 
  • “Nobody is free until everybody is free.”
A hug between Tasmeen Essop, the director of CAN, and the Co-Chair from Palestine.

From the Representatives of Environmental NGOs (ENGO) Constituency: 

  • Tasmeen Essop, director of Climate Action Network and from South Africa:
    • “The governments today are disappointing us and our Palestinians. But it’s the people across the world that are rising up and standing with Palestinians. That is our power. We will not let down our brother and sisters in Palestine, just like we did let down the people in South Africa”
  • Speaker 2: Male representative from the Global Campaign to Demand Climate Justice:
    • “Their broken promises on climate finance, on equity, and on justice litter 28 COPs. Their empty words no longer fool anyone. But our fight has never simply been about reducing carbon. Our fight has always been about ending injustice and inequity.”
    • “Our goal is to uproot this rotten system and injustice of 500 years of exploitation and extraction.”
    • “Our fight is not just about a just transition.  We want a justice transition. Our fight is a fight for humanity.”
    • “Yes, we say ceasefire now. Yes, we say end the occupation….And yes, we say we want an end to this rotten system. POWER TO THE PEOPLE!” 
The lyrics to the climate anthem that we sang as we marched out of the People’s Plenary.

As the People’s Plenary concluded, the collective call for climate justice continued to echo through the halls of COP. We all marched out of the plenary led by youth activists to a climate parody of the Backstreet Boys’ song “I Want It That Way.” I hope that seeing, reading, and hearing these activists make you feel as empowered as I do for the future of climate action.

The Shifting Sands of COP28

By Prof. James Padilioni, Jr.

Como arena entre los dedos. For some reason, there are certain phrases that strike me as more evocative in my heritage language of Spanish than their translation into English, my dominant tongue. One of these – como arena entre los dedos / like sand between the fingers – describes the futility of exerting more and more energy trying to accomplish something that is fundamentally structured in an antagonistic or unproductive way. 

For the last week I have attended side events, plenary sessions, and policy negotiations at COP28, and despite the goodwill for building sustainable futures carried to Dubai Expo City by many of the over 80,000 registered attendees, all I keep hearing in my head is the endless refrain that so much of the intentions uttered here will amount to nothing more than a Sisyphean effort to grab hold of the earth como arena entre los dedos. Though I strive to model for my students that “my default position is wonder [in the face of the beauty, magic, miracles, and patterns of the world], I am not without critique, disappointment, frustration, and even depression when I contemplate humanity.” 

Prof. Padilioni with Swarthmore-Pomona delegation (and friends!) at COP28

Since the 2015 adoption of the Paris Agreement, much fanfare has been made around the target of slashing emissions by half their current rate prior to 2030 in order for humans to have a chance at limiting global average temperature warming to only 1.5°C beyond pre-industrial levels (with a 2.0 degree average warming placed as the upper threshold of acceptability.) However, report after report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Meteorological Organization, and other climate science researchers over the course of 2023 in advance of COP28 has continued to sound the alarm that, with our current carbon emission rates, Earth is likely (66%) to exceed the 1.5°C benchmark prior to 2030, despite the now-eight-year global campaign to mitigate this outcome. Additionally, since the 2015 adoption of the Paris Agreement, it has also been known that COP28 would form the first global stocktake, defined by the UNFCCC as “a process for countries and stakeholders to see where they’re collectively making progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement – and where they’re not.” As an accounting and inventorying measure, the global stocktake was intended to enable the world to “identify the gaps, and work together to chart a better course forward to accelerate climate action.” 

But I am pained to report the global stocktake is, perhaps, the grandest staging of political theater humankind has ever had the opportunity to witness. For eight years now, various carbon markets and other trading schema have emerged to help facilitate a country’s net reduction in fossil fuel emissions so they can meet their obligations according to their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). But, at best, this stocktake is a ruse that, como arena entre los dedos was never intended as a true or accurate accounting measure, as country NDCs and their concomitant stocktake do not account for carbon emissions generated by militarism and warfare. Here, I find myself once again turning to sand as a proverbial figure for human futility: how utterly absurd it is to speak of reducing carbon emissions while simultaneously sticking one’s head in the sand as it relates to the ecological cost of warfare writ large. One cannot claim to care about the environment on one hand, while ignoring a primary vector of environmental degradation on the other. To ignore military fossil fuels on paper, while espousing “net-zero” carbon arrangements via financial and credit instruments is the height of absurdity. The reality of our warming atmospheric condition abides, regardless whether we factor military greenhouse gases into our bookkeeping measures or not. 

Graphic advertising the Peoples Plenary for Climate Justice at COP28

From the Steppes of Eastern Europe to the Levant of the Eastern Mediterranean, and down through the Sudd wetlands of the Upper Nile to the ​​Jebel Marra and beyond, the ecological destruction of warfare is on full display as we “doom scroll” through our social media feeds. As The New York Times has made clear, it should be obvious to any half-aware person that “Wars destroy habitats, kill wildlife, generate pollution and remake ecosystems entirely, with consequences that ripple through the decades.” But that which is seemingly-obvious is often elusive to collective human efforts, and thus, while the UNFCCC climate regime seeks to reign in excessive carbon emissions, warfare and genocide form the durable, though apocalyptic, signs of our times. Since February 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian War has expended over 150 million tons of carbon, or “more than the annual emission of a highly developed country like Belgium” according to Viktoria Kireyeva, Ukraine’s deputy minister of environmental protection and natural resources, who addressed this matter at the COP28 side event, “Climate damage of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the knowledge gap on conflict and military emissions COP28.” Likewise, in just the first month of Israel’s besiegement of Gaza, over 25,000 tons of munitions rained down upon the coastal strip the size of Philadelphia, with a carbon expenditure equalling the “annual energy use of approximately 2,300 homes, or the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from approximately 4,600 passenger vehicles.” And even in so-called peace time, the world’s militaries, with their aircraft, tanks, and weapons, and via their drills, exercises and other daily operations, are estimated to account for 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Of course, this is only an estimate because the Paris Agreement contains no operationalized mechanism to provide a true accounting of militarism’s carbon budget. 

Grandmother Mary Lyons, Anishinaabe-Ojibwe Elder, opens the People’s Plenary

But this is not the whole story. Or at least, I refuse to accept that this be the whole story, for I am convinced that hope is the precondition of all social movements for justice. A young activist addressing the crowd gathered for the COP28 People’s Plenary evoked yet another metaphorical figure of sand and soil that also resonates with me more evocatively in Spanish than English, on account of the fact I first learned of this popular Mexican dicho while visiting the revolutionary murals of San Diego’s famous Chicano Park in Barrio Logan. Despite the seemingly-nonstop onslaught of bad news, we must never let ourselves feel beat down, but, rather, remember this truth: they tried to bury us, but they forgot that we are seeds / intentaron de enterrarnos, pero no sabían que somos semillas. While the shifting sands of time and the fog of war obscure our utopian visions for desirable sustainable futures, may we never forget our collective power to sprout, set roots, and flourish. 

COP28 Private Sector Idealism Over Realism

By: Ethan Weiss ’25 (he/him) and Emmy Li ’25 (she/her)

Hi everyone!  While we come to you rather late into the process of this year’s Conference of Parties, we would like to share our thoughts, reflections, and ideas as we wrap up week one of COP28 Dubai.  For those that are not familiar with the UNFCCC and COP, we will do our best to explain!  The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change operates as the international body upon which climate policies are negotiated and adopted.  The Conference of Parties (COP) is an annual two-week convention where all representatives come to ‘finalize’ the year’s worth of smaller discussions into larger bodies of work.  These smaller discussions occur in cities like Bonn, Germany, and New York City, USA, to build negotiations upon previous meetings, set agendas moving forward, and build slowly toward the culminating work that occurs at COP.  While COP is the big summit of this work, it is not just an event.  It is very much a process.  Hannah’s post from earlier last week does a great job explaining this more!

This year, COP28 is characterized by a unique level of controversy due to its host nation.  Dubai is a state (emirate) inside one of the UAE, one of the world’s largest oil exporting countries.  Until very recently, the UAE’s economy has been based solely on its fossil fuel industry.  Development as a world wonder and shifts in investment toward sustainable systems have backed the UAE’s aspirations to be a role model for climate action.  That being said, they still export industry-leading amounts of oil with no plans to stop.

Days before the conference’s official start, the BBC released an investigative report outlining leaked memos that indicate the UAE’s intention of creating new oil deals during the COP’s proceedings. COP President Sultan al-Jaber had long faced criticism for his conflicts of interest as the head of a state-run oil company.  A main agenda piece of COP is solidifying commitments to alternatives to fossil fuels and shifting toward a renewable future.  If the leadership is entrenched in the industry that their conference seeks to absolve, how can they effectively fulfill their responsibility?

These thoughts remain at the forefront of our approach here in Dubai.  Week One consisted of a mix of attending negotiation sessions, protests, and side events in a venue that seems to purposefully isolate these avenues of engagement.  While the locations of these conversations are widely spread, the seemingly constant presence of fossil fuel private sector representatives trips our internal alarms.  Save for the party-only negotiations and informal consultations, there have been executives, representatives, or lobbyists for  pollutive industries at every single event we’ve attended.  This ubiquity is not just anecdotal.  The Associated Press counts a record-setting 1,300 oil representatives registered in attendance at this year’s COP.  This is triple the number from last year at COP27 Sharm-el-Sheikh.  Expo City’s blue zone layout includes one-hundred buildings, which breaks down to an average of thirteen representatives per location.

Hey everyone, Ethan here.  My interests lay primarily within the realm of carbon markets.  Such markets exist at different scales.  Under the UNFCCC, Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement addresses a forthcoming framework for an international carbon exchange scheme.  There are also voluntary carbon markets (VCM), country- and state-specific compliance markets (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and California Air Resources Board (CARB)), and union-level markets such as the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme.  Discussions over non-Article 6.4 matters have occurred at side events in the form of panel discussions.  These panels on voluntary carbon markets have all had a mix of independent research leaders, institutional representatives, and our ever-present fossil fuel lobby.  Their contributions (as our title suggests) are rooted in idealism that lacks substantive backing.  An American oil executive was a panelist at the opening remarks for the thematic day on methane reductions where, upon first opportunity to speak, the conversation shifted to self-congratulatory remarks on their recognition of the need to abate methane emissions.  Their commitments reduce methane, but not GHG emissions overall.  Their comments are framed as “we should” or “we must” in reference to changing fossil fuel dependency.  Their action smells distinctly of self-preservation.

Those that are on the side of creating offset solutions for voluntary carbon markets are at fault as well.  One panel discussion, entitled “The Science Behind Carbon Markets,” was composed of two independent research representatives, a state environmental manager, and two forestry-based offset project firms.  These two private-sector project developers spoke to the successes of their companies and the great potential of carbon sinking in creating forests.  Items left unmentioned by any panelist were the fact that an estimated 80% of carbon offsets from forestry projects are either non-additional, reversed, or leaked to other areas.  Pervasively low prices that do not reflect social costs of carbon were also omitted from the conversation.  With the voluntary carbon market already under great duress from lack of confidence by investors, representing this topic with individuals from projects with arguably the least integrity is not only unhelpful, it’s embarrassing.  Members from a previous panel spoke to the end-goal of uniting voluntary offset projects under a set of identified best-practices such that their contributions would be recognized by international regulatory markets.  If this truly is the anticipated route, someone needs to tell these folks.

Hi! Emmy taking over!  Looking beyond the carbon markets, panels directly engaging in discussions with private sector banking executives do not seem to offer any more hope either.  These executives continue speaking to what should be done rather than what they are doing to fulfill these needs. In an event titled, “Accelerating Private Capital into Nature-based Solution Projects: a multi-stakeholder collaboration approach” in the Capacity Building Hub as part of Private Sector Finance Capacities Day, the speakers from various banks such as Barclays and HSBC came together to discuss how to channel more private capital funding into nature based solution (NbS for short) projects, specifically exploring the Mangrove Breakthrough Initiative created at COP27. However, once again, instead of explaining the process to de-risk the environment to encourage more private sector financing, the panelists focused more on highlighting how the current market into investing into NbS projects does not exist and will likely struggle to exist in the future as projects are not “bankable” in size, in addition to country scope issues. As I walked away from this panel, I was left with a more pessimistic view and one big question as to how to scale up private sector financing: if everyone thinks that private sector financing is supposed to facilitate early activity, where does talk stop being just talk?

We hope that as the conference moves into Week Two, more substantive answers will arise.  Side events seem to take a back seat to the larger negotiations with the shortening timeline, though we will be keeping a keen eye on the contributions of private sector speakers around the conference.  Perhaps their language will become more specific if the higher-level negotiations begin to settle on debates surrounding Paris Articles 6.2, 6.4, and 6.8.  We look forward to keeping track of these discussions.

Till next time,

Ethan and Emmy

Hello from COP28!

Today, the Swarthmore delegation embarked on it’s first day at COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates!

COP28, which officially kicked off on November 30, 2023, stands for the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Sounds simple, right? In reality, it’s incredibly complex, with this title actually referring to negotiations on multiple international climate agreements happening in parallel to each other.

The Swarthmore delegation is attending COP28 with observer badges – a designation that provides the opportunity for those outside of party delegations to essentially observe the negotiations. While this also sounds pretty simple, observers have valuable roles to play in transparency, advocating for certain outcomes, and bringing innovative research and ideas to the table. During the next 12 days, we’ll be navigating the complexity of COP28 to engage on a wide variety of topics and share what we are learn. Check out our first impressions and what we’re looking forward to below. Follow along on this blog for updates from our delegation!

First impressions:

Oviya Kumaran (’24)
“You are able to experience and see so many different aspects of the world of climate action. I got to sit in informal meetings relating to the Green Climate fund and gender and climate change but also attend a panel on the intersectional climate action being done by local communities and indigenous community leaders . Everyone is truly represented in the climate world.”

Emmy Li (’25)
“I am extremely grateful to be a part of Swarthmore’s delegation to COP28 this year! COP is the largest annual climate change conference, and after the first day, it’s been very inspiring to be surrounded by over 70,000+ people who are all passionate about solving the climate crisis. In addition to attending negotiation meetings on the Santiago Network and the Green Climate Fund, I attended a side event titled “Operationalizing the Loss and Damage Fund with Equity and Efficacy” and explored a few country’s pavilions (Palau, China, EU, and Nigeria). Overall, I’ve noticed that while negotiations may progress at a very slow pace, it’s been super rewarding to engage in conversations with fellow attendees to learn more about their background experiences and passions.”

Hannah Ulloa (Climate Action Manager)
“COP is this massive convergence of people and ideas. At first glance, you might think you are witnessing a two-week event with a set beginning and end. But really it’s a culmination of months, even years, of work to move forward on international climate agreements. Every COP builds upon the last, just as every meeting or event you attend while there builds upon the previous one. It’s a fascinating process to follow and incredibly valuable context to discuss climate action on any scale.”

Looking ahead:

Ethan Weiss (’24/25)
“The negotiations that take place over how to proceed with existing protocols, namely Kyoto and Paris, take place across multiple scheduled events that cause pauses in conversation. Such pauses slow the process of mending agreements, though this makes sense given the need for group consensus. Chatting with other observes and folks in the Green Zone has been just as informative as meetings in the Blue Zone, so I look forward to the rest of my time in both!”

Emmy Li
“Throughout the next two weeks, I am most interested in following negotiations and events surrounding climate finance, specifically looking at scaling up finance from all stakeholders from public, private, and multilateral channels for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damages. It’ll be particularly interesting to see how the details shake out with the L&D fund (such as whether more pledges come in), considering that it was officially operationalized on the first day at COP28.”

Oviya Kumaran
“I’m looking forward to topics related to a just transition, aviation, carbon offsets, the global stocktake, and the role of indigenous groups.”

We Are Not Defeated, And We Will Never Be Defeated: The People’s Plenary.

By: Olivia Fey ’23 (she/her) & Anna Considine ’23 (she/her)

People raising their fists in solidarity in the UN Plenary room.

For the past couple of years, the UN has officially sanctioned an event called the People’s Plenary: a moment for civil society groups to take the main stage at COP and make their voices heard. Despite its importance, this crucial event was nowhere to be found on the official schedule for COP27. By complete accident, Professor Ayse Kaya walked into the Plenary on Thursday. On stage were representatives of Indigenous peoples, trade unions, environmental NGOs, the women and gender constituency, the disability rights movement, and youth. She sent our delegation a text, and we all immediately rushed off to witness this powerful moment.

The People’s Plenary, and the ensuing protest, was by far the most impactful moment of our time at COP so far, moving all of us to the brink of tears. The speeches at the People’s Plenary highlighted the lack of hope and real solutions found in UN deliberation halls. The representatives instead called for real climate solutions that resist colonial, capitalist, patriarchal and ableist structures. Each representative ended their speech by saying the same powerful words of solidarity and strength: “we are not yet defeated and we will never be defeated.”

Jacob Crane of the Tsuut’ina Nation, displaying the flag of his people.
“Reconnecting to your culture is climate action and climate justice.” ~ Jacob Crane

During the speeches, fists rose in the air and people stood up and sang in the otherwise formal, sterile halls of the UN. These moments were made especially powerful in the context of the suppression of activism at COP27. A letter was read out during the People’s Plenary from the mother of the Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah, whose imprisonment and hunger strike made headlines at the start of COP. The plenary called for his, and all political prisoners’ release.

While protests at COP27 are meant to be restrained to officially sanctioned events of about a dozen people confined to small platforms, at the end of the session, the crowd marched through the halls of the UN calling for climate justice now. Unified in song with people around the world, we could feel the power, the energy, and the hope that had been lacking throughout the rest of our experience at COP. The protest culminated in a powerful reading of the People’s Declaration for Climate Justice. We ask that you read through this document built out of solidarity between peoples around the world. More importantly, as the representative of the frontline for gender justice asks, “don’t just read our declaration… take action.”

After the Plenary, the crowd took to the area outside of the conference hall, in peaceful protest.

Overwhelmingly, we are left with the feeling that the People’s Plenary is what a plenary at the largest global conference on climate change SHOULD FEEL LIKE. We are currently awaiting the release of the agreements reached at COP27, but we wish to make clear that the real fight, the real solutions, and the place where we must derive our hope comes from the work of the people, not the halls of COP.  

We want to use this blog post to share some of the words of the incredible activists that assertively and bravely took the world stage. Their words speak of extreme disappointment with the progress of the UN negotiations, the violences of the climate crisis already affecting their communities, and their belief in the power of people. We would love to share the link so you all can watch it yourself; however, in-keeping with a running theme of lack of access or transparency at COP27, we cannot find a recording of the event so far.

A flag at the protest, reading “APMDD: Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development.”

These are the messages of the people: 

From All:

We are not defeated, and we will never be defeated.

From the Representative of Indigenous Peoples:

“Without [Indigenous] leadership, even a nature-based solution becomes another false solution.”

“We demand direct access to resources that uplift our solutions, distinct life ways, worldviews, and Indigenous sciences. Our battles do not begin or end here at COP. When we return to our respective homes, we will continue the real work on the ground. We must pick up the work where states fall short. Supporting the self-determination of Indigenous peoples is the best for all peoples and [the] planet.”

“There is no climate justice without the rights of Indigenous peoples.”

From the Representative of the Frontline Struggle for Indigenous Peoples:

“Carbon offsets, net zero, and nature based solutions are a new form of colonization that further threaten our communities. These are false solutions.”

“It will be Indigenous and frontline communities that will bring forth the solutions that are needed.”

From the Representative of the Women & Gender Constituency:

“They may have drawn imaginary borders to divide us [and] color to segregate us, but they will not be able to break the collective power of our voices.”

“The chains of oppression must be broken.”

“We will not support your predatory economic system for greed and opulence.”

“We will rise like the water. We will stand strong as mountains. Our voices will be lifted by the wind. Our collective power will burn as brightly as fire.”

From the Representative of the Frontline for Gender Justice:

“We may sound loud in this room, yet we are not a part of any decision making.”

“Despite all these beautiful speeches on gender on gender day, gender is still not on the agenda. We are still not a priority.”

“When we ask for climate justice, do you think we are beggars asking for pity? Do you think that we want more loans and debt? Do you think that local communities do not have local solutions?”

From the Representative of Trade Union NGOs:

“[We] are paying a high price for lack of decisive leadership on climate action. […] We demand more.”

“We say no more. We urgently need a just transition. We ask for mitigation and adaptation, loss and damage mechanisms, all debts paid in the Global South. Just transition needs workers at the table. Others should not decide about our future. Labor rights are human rights.”

From the Representative of the Frontline Struggle for Workers’ Rights:

“We want to […] be independent, to be able to move forward as the working class of Africa, the Global South. We are not victims or beggars. We are demanding what is ours.”

“This is a class on whose back renewable technologies and the future for a green life are being based on. This is a class that may never have access to renewable energy, a class that will never have dignified work and will continue to be under the dark mines of Africa. […] As trade unions, we are here to warn and to caution that we must not repeat the history of the mining sector of our continent.”

“We demand to participate in a formal social engagement framework.”

From the Representative(s) of Environmental NGOs:

Speaker 1:

“We endorse this declaration. We do so because our people are suffering across the world. Their suffering and their vulnerability to climate change is caused by the structural injustices of economic and political systems.”

Speaker 2:

“We should not be surprised that for two weeks, those leaders of rich countries have been saying they believe in science, saying they believe in [the] 1.5[°C global warming limit], that they care. We are absolutely sick of their empty words – hypocritical words – and outright lies.”

“We have always known one truth: that this fight will never be won in the negotiating halls. It will only be won by the power of our movement […]. They treat the lives of our sisters and brothers as disposable. For us, they are non-negotiable.”

“We stand in defense of the 1.5 [limit], beyond which will be a death warrant for millions of people across the world. We believe as people we need to stand in solidarity to build a future of peace and justice. We believe it is only through the power of people that we can build a better world for all. We are unstoppable.”

“THE ONE THING THEY FEAR THE MOST IS SOLIDARITY.”

From the Representative of the Struggle for Youth Justice:

“How do we find hope when our current and future world is on fire? […] We practice hope every day because we don’t have an alternative.”

“Every thought and action has a collective impact. Collective drops create rivers, and rivers carve canyons. We can change the world.”

From the Representative of the Frontline Struggle for Climate Justice:

“We cannot continue going forth without looking at what brought us here today. We blame [climate change] on colonialism, on patriarchy. These systems must be changed […] before we can start talking about climate change.”

From the Representative of the Frontline Struggle for Environmental & Racial Justice:

“We have to repair our ecology and we have to repair our relationships with each other. We have to love each other.”

“We have nothing to lose but our chains.”

From the Representative of the Disabled Rights Movement:

“I will be brief in my statement, but not as brief as [the mention of] disabled people in the Paris Agreement.”

“Like climate change, disabled people have been left behind.”

“No human rights without disability rights. There is no climate justice without disability justice. Nothing about us, without us.”

From the Representative of the Frontline Struggle for Disability Rights:

“When I left the safety of home, I realized my colonization had affected my ability to recognize that I was not the problem, but the systems were.”

From the Family of Egyptian Activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah:

“Show us every day what courage and determination look like.”

“[There is a] shared pain of those who believe in a better world.”

“You told us we are your family; our pain is your pain. You made no empty promises. You simply told us that we stand with you.”

“Everyday, we survive. We matter, just like every tenth of a degree matters.”

“Together we can break the walls of fear. Our horizon is freedom for all.”

Chants Filling the Plenary:

“The people, united, will never be defeated!” / “El pueblo, unido, jamas sera vencido!”

“Free Alaa; free them all.”

“Solidarity forever.”

“Power to the people.”

“When the world that we know is under attack, what do we do? Stand up, fight back.”

“We are the people / The mighty, mighty people / Fighting for justice / And for liberation / Everywhere we go / The people ought to know / Who we are / Who we are / So, we tell them / …” (repeat)

Thank you enormously for taking the time to read the voice of the people.

Signing off,

Olivia & Anna <3

Banner at the protest, reading “our sky, water, soil & forests are not for sale.”

Please note: we transcribed these quotes during the Plenary to the best of our ability, but they may not be perfect as a result. In any case, we hope to have accurately captured the sentiments of these powerful activists.

Additional resources: