December 2024 – Swarthmore at COP29

On the Petrostate

An Azeri Soldier and security camera guard the perimeter to COP29 in Baku, behind which a row of gas-powered turbine generators is visible. (Author)

By Owen Sears (POLS Major/ENGR Minor, Class of 2025, from Philadelphia, PA)

11 November 2024

Any scholar of politics can offer up a definition of the state, and the most common one cites Max Weber as asserting the state as the social body that maintains the monopoly on violence within a territory. This is only the beginning of understanding the nature of modern statehood, and Weber’s thesis (most famously expressed in Politics as a Vocation) allows the scholar to conceive of the state as an entity that can transcend countries and polities.

Enter the petrostate. Countries whose economies rely on carbon fuel exploitation are often referred to as such, especially in a derogatory sense by liberal commentators in the West. Ironically its connotation has become less acute in the modern moment after the painful thrust of the trident: the geopolitical and economic realignment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the 8 October 2023 debut of the Zionist state’s ongoing campaign of its longstanding war against Palestine. In order to understand the modern petrostate it’s important to unpack the impacts of the trident. The pandemic led to record profits for many F500 companies, especially hydrocarbon firms, due to an increased demand for energy. On February 8, 2023 Reuters reported that Big Oil corporations more than doubled their profits in 2022 to $219 billion, going on to pay out a record $110 billion in dividends and stock buybacks to investors. These companies have opted to expand their operations, particularly in the Permian Basin of Texas and Oklahoma, further lowering production costs and increasing revenue. In February 2024 the Guardian reported that the supermajors (Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron, and France’s Total) have raked in a whopping $281b since the beginning of the Russian invasion. The impact of the demolition of the underwater Nord Stream pipelines should not be overlooked. Far greater than just the effects of releasing a methane bomb into the atmosphere, the bombing of the pipelines (likely executed by Ukrainian divers acting with UK and US support) severed Europe’s connection to Russian gas and paved the way for the United States to become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. The effects of the 2023-present Gaza campaign are a bit harder to discern from an energy standpoint, but the Guardian gives us a hint in a report from January 2024. “The planet-warming emissions generated during the first two months of the war in Gaza were greater than the annual carbon footprint of more than 20 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations,” according to research from the Climate and Community Project. It should be clear that war is terrible for the environment, and military campaigns degrade our shared future by:

Polluting the land through toxic explosive residue, debris from destroyed structures, and waste left by soldiers
Polluting the air through vehicle and aircraft emissions, including those of ships that supply forces with fuel and materiel. (Military vehicles emit significantly more carbon and criteria pollutants than civil vehicles due to their use of diesel fuel and limited regulation)
Requiring carbon-intensive reconstruction and remediation after the end of the war. (It is nearly inconceivable to imagine how Gaza will be rebuilt)
And other no less important impacts.

Modern warfare requires unholy amounts of fossil fuel. In the case of Palestine, the Zionist military receives its refined military fuels like jet fuel from the American empire, and it now mainly buys the rest of its hydrocarbons from the Republic of Azerbaijan, the country in which I am currently located.

I’m writing this from the lobby of my hotel in Baku, where I am attending COP29, the 2024 Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Baku has been built on a vast reservoir of oil so accessible that Marco Polo took note of its black geysers. The first well here was dug a decade before the first in America, and thus Baku can be considered the birthplace of the oil industry. One of Hitler’s goals for his ill-fated Operation Barbarossa, the largest land offensive in human history, was to seize the oil reserves of the Caucasus. His empire ultimately failed in this task, but succeeded in its other goal, which was to slaughter millions of Russians and Slavs to prepare for the German settlement of their lands. Blood and soil, blood and oil; the oil is the lifeblood of this land. The air is hazy and smoky, the three Flame Towers ripple into the sky illuminated in red. The old city itself is beautiful, the architecture and culture eclectic and rich. Everything new here was built by oil.

Azerbaijan is the definition of a petrostate. It is an authoritarian country with Ilham Aliyev as head of state, who took over as president following the death of his father Heydar. The elder Aliyev cut his teeth as a high-ranking officer in the Azeri SSR’s KGB and became a powerful apparatchik within the USSR. His son’s election in 2003 was universally decried as a sham, and a personality cult of the two leaders reigns to this day. I haven’t yet seen any oversized posters bearing their visages above nationalistic quotes or jackbooted troops brutalizing the unhoused, but the atmosphere of authority pervades. CCTV consists of eight swiveling cameras per pole like the spawn of Argus and Hydra. Police in reflective jackets and baseball caps roam the streets, smoking cigarettes and looking bored. At the conference grounds soldiers wearing yellow vests over fatigues stand vigil, planted every fifty meters along the perimeter like camouflage trees. They have batons in their holsters, not firearms, and the people pay them little mind. My interpretation is that repressive state forces are only really necessary if the economy disfavors the common man. In a well-run petrostate the citizen benefits from the strong oil economy and therefore has little gripe with even a completely undemocratic regime.

I describe how I perceive the Azeri state not to castigate the country’s governance structure but to draw parallels between this country and nearly every other. A heavy police presence and extensive surveillance infrastructure is to be expected in a major city. These days NYPD and Empire Shield soldiers conduct searches of subway patrons’ bags, often equipped with military weapons and equipment. In Amsterdam squads of cops encircle and beat antiwar protesters. In Western countries the deployment of chemical agents against demonstrators has become the norm. And of course the United States, as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, has become the world’s leading petrostate.

However, the key to understanding the petrostate is to recognize that its existence transcends individual states. Governments themselves do not maintain the monopoly on carbon violence wielded by the petrostate: they financially and politically facilitate it, but the machinery of violence lies in the hands of corporations, not nation-states. Only oil and gas companies can produce oil and gas; in order to thwart their destructive plans we must disrupt their economic viability. My conclusion from the Conference is that we as global citizens cannot rely upon state governments, whether national or international, to save us from the impending climate nightmare. Transformative climate action must begin at home, at school, and at work. We must reject the expansion of carbon fuels, petroleum-derived chemical products, and other climate-impacting processes. Now more than ever it is crucial that institutions like Swarthmore make public their commitment to a peaceful future, not just by immediately ceasing their direct and indirect emissions, but primarily by divesting their extensive holdings in the global carbon industry and reinvesting in sustainable community enterprises. Divestment is the single most powerful tool available to those who care about our collective future.

-OS

The Biodiversity-Climate Nexus: Bridging the Gap Between UNFCC COP29 and CBD COP16

By Ellie Zack ‘25: Environmental Studies, Peace & Conflict Studies and Linguistics

At COP29, I followed a series of side events on biodiversity and its connections with climate change. Biodiversity is defined by the United Nations as “the variety of life on Earth, in all its forms, from genes and bacteria to entire ecosystems such as forests or coral reefs.” Biodiversity and its nature-based solutions are the strongest natural defense to climate change. But at the same time, biodiversity can be a risk factor that contributes to worsening climate change. The United Nations treats climate change, biodiversity, and pollution as a “triple planetary crisis,” where each issue is treated as an individual sector, but it is recognized that they are intertwined. The UN Convention on Biological Diversity, or CBD, has its own COP every two years to work towards a goal of conserving biodiversity and sharing its benefits fairly.

But why is biodiversity important to the climate crisis? Biodiversity loss, which mostly arises due to land use and food production problems, threatens the health of carbon sinks on land and in the ocean. When carbon sinks start to release carbon instead of store it, changes to the climate accelerate. But climate change can increase biodiversity loss, too, increasing the mortality rate of plant and animal species from higher temperatures and disease rates. A reinforcing feedback loop is created where climate change accelerates the loss of biodiversity, which continues to exacerbate the effects of climate change even more. Because of this, climate change and biodiversity loss should not be treated as two separate problems.

A few weeks before COP29, the CBD COP16 was held in Cali, Columbia. 175 countries were represented this year, but the United States attended only as an observer instead of an official party. The US has never joined the Convention of Biological Diversity. The theme this year was “Peace in Nature,” and the biggest focus of the conference was to review the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which was put into place at CBD COP15. One of the key aspects of the new framework is the 30×30 target, where a goal is set to protect biodiversity in 30% of all terrestrial, inland water, and marine and coastal areas by 2030. This goal is the part of the biodiversity framework that is brought up the most in UNFCCC dialogue. COP16 was a venue for parties to work on their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs), which are most often compared to the UNFCCC’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Over the past few years, there has been discussion at both COPs about how to include biodiversity into climate change solutions. COP27 had a thematic day for biodiversity, and COP28 had many discussions of how to include plans for the 30×30 target into NDCs.

I found biodiversity events almost every day during the second week of COP29, even when it was not part of the thematic day. Tuesday was unofficially labeled “Synergies Day,” where many of the side events discussed how to find intersectional solutions to climate change. I started my morning in the Capacities Building Hub inside the Blue Zone, where events tend to be more interactive. I went to an event called, “Effectively Delivering on Climate and Nature: NDCs, NAPs, and NSBAPs Synergies.”

A discussion on NDC, NAP, and NBSAP synergies at the COP29 Capacity Building Hub

The event discussed the need for an increase in coherence between the Paris Agreement and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and how this can be possible. New Nationally Determined Contributions, parties’ action plans for how they will meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, are due in February 2025. This event called for alignment between the new NDCs and the current National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NPSAPs). At COP29, a new checklist was made that parties can use to assess their plans and set stronger goals. The main takeaway of the event was that there will be greater results in both sectors if these plans work together than if they work alone. Coordination between biodiversity and climate change promotes efficiency in actions and use of resources, ensures that efforts do not undermine each other, and improves collaboration and knowledge planning.

I went to a few biodiversity events at individual pavilions, too. The Arctic Pavilion held an event titled, “Ocean Climate Nexus Adaptation Strategies to Address Climate Change and Migration Approaches for Reducing Biodiversity Loss in the Ocean.” This event was run by members of YOUNGO, the youth constituency. They discussed specific examples of adaptation strategies that can be implemented to help promote biodiversity. These included preservation and restoration of coastal forests, wetlands, and mangroves. They also discussed the education of marine biodiversity, and how bringing training on waste and water management into schools and online courses can minimize the impact of biodiversity loss in local communities.

A YOUNGO panel at the Arctic Pavilion on reducing ocean biodiversity loss

I also went to an event in the World Wildlife Fund Pavilion, “Two Crises–One Solution–Biodiversity and Climate Nexus in the Caucasus Region.” Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of Environment spoke at the event, explaining how Azerbaijan is in the middle of a biodiversity hotspot, with nine of the 11 main climate types found in the country. The event promoted the idea that biodiversity and climate change are sisters, and that nature is necessary to be able to reach climate change goals. It also announced a change in the country’s conservation plan, increasing their funding and efforts to keep biodiversity alive.

Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of Environment speaking in the World Wildlife Fund Pavilion about biodiversity in the Caucasus Region

“Boost ‘UNEA Synergy Resolution’ – Synergy Building in National Climate and Biodiversity Strategies” was an event held at Japan’s pavilion. This event discussed the same cobenefit approach to finding solutions for both climate change and biodiversity simultaneously, maximizing synergies and minimizing tradeoff. Japan’s synergy planning includes a holistic environmental action plan, a conservation matrix, and their own synergy report that works along the UNFCCC one. The event also included a youth perspective—they said that the strengths of young people are time and passion. The panel included talk of how young people are capable of understanding how everything is connected, and how synergies are able to make big problems easier to understand.

A panel at the Japan Pavilion on synergy building between NDCs and NBSAPs

Canada’s pavilion also had an event on Synergies Day called, “Partnerships for Climate, Biodiversity and People: Canadian and Global Perspectives.” Canada was a co-host of CBD COP15, where the new biodiversity framework was created. They are a leader in biodiversity policy, aiming to understand the real costs to livelihoods and health that can come from biodiversity loss. The panel discussed the theory of change framework that is included in the current biodiversity plan—you describe the change that you want over a period of time and plan out what actions it will take to get there. Examples of biodiversity projects talked about in the panel included private sector projects, like planting specific varieties of trees in a local community, and funding for research, like the PATH plan for equitable adaptation. A similar thread was seen throughout the day: problems are joint, so solutions should also be joint.

A panel on biodiversity in the Canada Pavilion

This same idea was promoted at the World Bank Pavilion. They discussed how most social and environmental justice problems affect the same communities at the same time, so they will not be able to be stopped individually. The event was titled “Leveraging Nature Based Solutions for Resilience Adaptation.” The panel talked about how climate change is a feedback loop and nature can be a solution, and gave specific examples of what these nature-based solutions can look like. They included climate resilience projects like landscape restoration, agroforestry using native species, fire management strategies, and mangrove restoration.

The World Bank Pavilion’s event on nature-based solutions

There was not a lot of progress made at COP29 connecting the policies of climate change and biodiversity. The UAE dialogue from COP28 included a line about biodiversity, reaffirming “the importance of conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems…in line with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.” However, the negotiations on the UAE dialogue were pushed to COP30, so it will be interesting to see if this line stays in the dialogue.

Even still, there was a lot of discourse about the interconnectedness of biodiversity and climate change. Biodiversity is often overlooked as a strategy to reduce climate change—the potential for nature-based solutions can be overpowered by talk of new mitigation technology or adaptation plans. But it is now well understood that the solutions of climate change and biodiversity conservation need to work hand-in-hand. I will be curious to see how this conversation gets pulled into side events at COP30 in Brazil, which is going to be located on the edge of the Amazon, one of the world’s largest biodiversity hotspots. As synergy becomes a more common topic of conversation at both COPs, countries will hopefully start to coordinate their NDCs and NAPs with their NBSAPs.

The People’s Plenary

On Thursday, November 21st, 2024, I attended, in my opinion, the most powerful and emotionally stirring event of Conference of the Parties-29 (COP-29) in Baku, Azerbaijan: the People’s Plenary, or the People’s COP.

Before I can discuss what I saw at this People’s Plenary, I think it is important that I address the purpose of the event. The People’s Plenary is a space where Indigenous Peoples, youth groups and delegations, including YOUNGO, women, farmers, environmental NGOs, and other activists gather together to voice their frustrations with the COP processes, but also their hope for what they believe the future can look like if large actions are taken to advance climate justice. This year, these groups called for an increase in climate finance, because COP-29 was billed as “The Finance COP”.

Given that COP was hosted in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, it was understood before COP began that protests and activist activity would be limited, given the repressive nature of the Azerbaijani government. I did see activists outside the Side Event rooms, but they had strict guidelines to follow, and had to conclude their presentations and clear the hall after their time-slot ended. The People’s Plenary is a forum where activists’ work is accepted and can be celebrated, and criticism can be voiced safely and heard by empathetic peers.

This event, while listed on the official UNFCCC schedule of COP, is scarcely attended by negotiators. In fact, when queueing to enter the Caspian Plenary Room, where the event was being held, those with yellow observer-designated badges had priority. This is not the case for most rooms where negotiations are held. The room filled up very quickly, with observers and side-event speakers from all over the world and from many different walks of life when the security guards finally allowed access.

My view from the front row of the audience of the stage in the Caspian Plenary.

On that particular day at COP-29, the official theme of the day was, “Indigenous Peoples, Gender Equality, Nature & Biodiversity, & Oceans & Coastal Zones”. However, the theme of the People’s Plenary was, “Pay Up, Stand Up: Finance Climate Action, Not Genocide”. This title accurately expressed the frustrations of the many speakers and the groups they represented, especially because many hail from the Global South, where communities disproportionately face the effects of a climate catastrophe that they did not contribute to nearly as much as corporations and governments in the Global North.

The banner of the COP-29 People’s Plenary.

The first speakers, introduced by the Chair of the Plenary, spoke on behalf of Palestine, Lebanon, and South Sudan. All women, they expressed their anguish about the suffering their people have faced. They highlighted the compounding negative effects of climate change that threaten the lives of people whose lives are already endangered, and how war and devastation of cities likewise contribute to climate change and pollution. Each speaker conveyed her hurt and anger that the name of her respective homeland would not and could not be uttered in negotiations.

This resonated with me deeply, as an Armenian-American woman. My grandfather’s family fled Armenian when my grandfather, John Kerimian, and his twin brother, Ray Kerimian, were infants, and his sister, Jacqueline Kerimian, was a young teenager. Currently, there are more Armenians living in diaspora than in Armenia. Recently, millions of indigenous Armenians living in Artsakh, or Nagorno Karabakh, were forced to leave their homeland when Azerbaijan asserted that the territory belonged to them and occupied the region. In the halls of the Conference of the Parties-29, I did not hear anyone mention Armenia either.

The introduction of the People’s Plenary provoked deep emotions within me. As I wiped away tears, I made eye contact with the women around me, and felt a sense of solidarity and understanding pass between us. The mood of the rest of the Plenary, though, was more fiery, with attendees calling for “Trillions, Not Billions”, referring to the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). The NCQG is a target established in the Paris Agreement in 2015, which was formerly 100 billion USD. The purpose of the NCQG is to raise climate finance for developing countries, which can help these nations fund mitigation efforts, adapt to climate change, and recover when natural disasters destroy industries and displace people.

One of the speakers that I found very riveting, was an activist fighting in the larger Global Climate Justice Movement. He spoke passionately and emphasized that the struggle for climate justice is inextricably linked to the global push to end genocides and wars. This intersectionality was not unknown to me, but hearing it stressed at a prestigious conference was empowering. Sitting in that vast room, I thought of the work of my peers and my own environmental justice work, and felt a wave of resolve to continue advocating for and standing with people being unfairly harmed by climate change pass through me.

At the end of the Plenary, citizens of the Global North were called to stand and recite a pledge to support the Global South and push for justice wherever and whenever, no matter what. Now COP has ended, and the NCQG was actually set at 300 billion USD, when nations from the Global South stated that 1.3 trillion would be needed to combat climate change. While it may seem like this would be devastating to the attendees of the People’s Plenary, I suspect they will maintain their hope, passion, and action, and continue to push for climate action.

Overall, I am grateful that I was able to attend COP-29, and attend the People’s Plenary. It will be a memory I cherish for a long time, especially as I plan to attend law school, and persist in my activism.

Cultural Snapshots: Engaging with Azerbaijani Culture in the COP-29 Green Zone

Emily Kerimian ’25, Swarthmore College; Honors Environmental Studies major and Honors German Studies minor

Before arriving at the Conference of the Parties-29 (COP-29), I had a fairly clear idea of what I would see in this international and multilateral climate change conference hosted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): busy, tense negotiations, where every word, comma, and bracket is scrutinized, side events and press conferences, where adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage are discussed at length, and pavilions, where delegate Parties (i.e countries) host events to show off their progress in achieving their goals and discuss future ambitions and other non-Party groups can educate visitors about their role in combating the climate crisis. I even expected to see protests, even if in a diminished form. All these events take place in the Blue Zone, where you need a badge, indicating your name, affiliation, days of access, and classification. I attended this conference as an observer, a role meant to inspire negotiators to action, serving as the general public’s eyes. My badge only became active on Tuesday, November 19th. Thus, on Monday, November 18th, I entered the Green Zone.

The Green Zone is an area of COPs that does not host negotiations. Instead, it features rows upon rows of booths set up for varying purposes. Typically, at these booths, you can find activist groups, or non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and spaces to interact with highly-informed people from all walks of life. This year, at COP-29, I saw many booths dedicated to businesses. One particular business that stood out to me happened to be SOCAR, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan. The prevalence of business in the Green Zone disheartened me. However, I continued to explore the Green Zone, seeking for something to re-inspire me.

While searching for the Art Pavilion in the afternoon, I stumbled across the “Azerbaijan” area at the center of the Green Zone. When I inquired about the Art Pavilion at the information desk, I was informed that there was indeed art and demonstrations occurring in the Azerbaijan Pavilion of the Green Zone. The kind volunteer steered me to the other side of the space, where I was handed a complementary cup of tea and a plate of traditional Azerbaijani sweets. Having not eaten since breakfast, I was grateful for the respite. After I finished my unexpected treat, I floated from demonstration to demonstration, absorbing more culture and kindness. Artisans from across the country, including remote villages, had been brought to the conference to share their talents and traditions with the visitors of COP. First, I learned how to make a shabaka, or shebeke in Azerbaijani, a stained-glass window. These intricate, lattice wood and glass structures captured my eye, but proved to be difficult to assemble. However, the artist was patient, guiding my hand, allowing me to mirror his work.

After thanking the man, and taking a quick picture of my handiwork, I approached a table covered in several detailed embroidered canvasses. Takelduz, or the art of embroidery, is a long-standing folk art tradition in Azerbaijan. Back in the United States, on Swarthmore’s campus, my best friend, who is incredibly gifted at embroidery, would have been delighted. I, meanwhile, timidly approached the table, to admire the craft. The woman making quick stitches beckoned me, and began to show me how the pattern takes shape. I copied her, falling into the easy rhythm, making the outline of her newest design take shape. This is a skill that I can see myself adapting into my own life, as it offers a great chance to be deliberate and contemplative, especially when topics, like the threat of climate catastrophe threaten to become overwhelming.

Next, I observed a woman weaving a rug by hand. She sat at a low bench, hands fluttering over a loom with a third-of-the-way finished rug. The volunteer returned, to let me know that the finished rug would take months, if not a year to complete. To me, the process of making a complex silk rug requires a similar brand of patience and faith that is necessary when waiting to see the outcomes of climate negotiations. Inspired by watching a silk rug being woven in real time, I made sure to bring home a small traditional rug for my parents, who to this day lament about passing up an opportunity to buy a large, shimmery silk carpet on a trip to Turkey.

The topmost rug with the circular pattern was the one I brought home for my family.
It now sits in my parents’ dining room.

In the same vicinity, I saw village women, darning with spools of wool. Again, I relied on the translation skills of the volunteer. She explained to me that in more remote areas, outside Baku, the capital, families make their own clothes out of wool. They work in phases, gathering the fibers and threads, spinning them into wool, dying that wool, and finally making items of clothing. In a world where the allure and ease of purchasing fast fashion abounds, seeing this strong example of reliance on personal skills and local resources made a strong impression on me at COP.

I then noticed that the table where a copper-smith was sitting was vacant. I took a seat and felt the grooves where he had etched a design into the copper. I summoned my courage and attempted to initiate a conversation in Russian. As a third-semester student, I feel my abilities are far from polished, but Russian is the second-most spoken language in Azerbaijan, and I enjoy making an effort to engage with people in a local language, if I am able. The man understood my Russian, and asked me how I learned, which gave me the chance to say that I was a student. While we chatted, I noticed he was working on a small piece. The volunteer looped back to the table to tell me he was making a ring for me. When he finished the piece, I noticed it had “COP-29” etched on it. It is a keepsake that will remind me of the beautiful and impactful time I spent in the Green Zone on my very first day of COP, and the connection I made in my third language.

For my last station, I visited a woman drawing henna. I had never had henna drawn, and the volunteer seemed thrilled on my behalf for my first henna experience being in Azerbaijan. As I watched the woman ink out a delicate flower, complete with leaves, and “Baku” with a heart, I reflected on this portion of my day. I had expected to be inundated with climate and UNFCCC lexicon, and negotiation updates. I did not expect an intimate look at the fascinating culture of COP’s host country. While I do not agree with the government of Azerbaijan, and still harbor mixed feelings about the decision to host COP-29 in an authoritative petrostate that has a recent history of ethnic cleansing, I feel nothing but love and respect for the people who took time and care to show visitors to COP the crafts of their homeland.