From Billions to Trillions: The Potential of COP 29

by Eder Ruiz Sanchez ’25, Sociology & Anthropology and Spanish

Upon our arrival to Baku for COP 29, it was clear the city was prepared to welcome over 50,000 attendees. The airport displayed banners, posters, and staff in COP-themed uniforms. Electric powered shuttles and newly introduced electric taxis also bore COP 29 labels, cementing Azerbaijan’s role as the global focus for climate discussions. However, soon after leaving the airport glamor, I saw an oil drill hidden behind some trees. Then, I saw another one in the center of a neighborhood. And several others in neighborhoods and on the side of the roads. This situation undeniably highlighted Azerbaijan’s status as a petrostate hosting a climate conference.

Taxi zone outside of the Baku airport
Baku airport baggage claim with COP banner

This year’s COP follows COP 28, held in the UAE, where a spectacle of flashy tech was coupled with a major commitment to the “beginning of the end” of fossil fuels. At the same time, the UAE stands as a major oil producer and human rights abuser, undermining not only its credibility as a host but the credibility of COP as a whole. Notably, 2023 was the hottest year on record and 2024 is on track to top that record. A year later and nearly a decade after the Paris Agreement, fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach new record highs. Climate skeptics, like Javier Milei in Argentina and Donald Trump in the U.S., have risen to power, threatening the global climate commitments made thus far. Additionally, reports came out revealing that the COP 29 CEO, Elnur Soltanov, also a board member of SOCAR (Azerbaijan’s state oil company), reportedly used the event to secure fossil fuel deals. In the lead up to COP 29, many Azeri climate activists, economists, and political opponents were arrested. 

[SOCAR pavilion in the Green Zone of COP29. The Green Zone is a free but ticketed zone usually dedicated to civil society, youth, and businesses; however, this year it was predominately Azeri businesses]

After studying the UNFCCC frameworks earlier this semester, I felt prepared to engage with the COP processes. However, an increasing amount of information revealed the façade and greenwashing that COP enables for countries like Azerbaijan to do. My skepticism, however, wasn’t directed at the will of the people participating in COP but at the frameworks that allow petrostates and human rights violators to host such events, as well as allow an increasing number of fossil fuel lobbyists into the venue.

Despite its flaws, COP remains a vital space where hundreds of environmental defenders and climate justice activists—particularly those from the Global South and most effected by climate disasters—come together. They recognize the imperfections of host countries, COP frameworks, and innate slowness, but also view COP as an opportunity to organize, build capacity and solidarities, and use the global spotlight to draw attention to their realities. Entering COP, I experienced a mix of emotions, balancing these contradictions with a strange sense of anticipation.

Line to enter the opening ceremony plenary

At the opening ceremony, COP 29 President Mukhtar Babayev urged for enhanced ambition and action for climate finance, the mobilization of financial sources for developing countries all ranging from public to private sector contributions towards a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). While the previous NCQG was $100 billion (set in 2009), the acceleration of climate change disasters on developing countries has experts and activists’ expectations of the NCQG being in the trillions. Babayev also acknowledged that current policies are leading us to 3ºC warming, if not more. Despite this, the adoption of the agenda was significantly delayed to later in the evening, stalling negotiations and wasting valuable time.

Livestream in the overflow room of Mukhtar Babayev, President of COP29, speaking at the opening ceremony
Plenary room with screens displaying that the opening ceremony will resume at 19:00

Day 2 and 3 featured the World Leaders Summit. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s opening speech further underscored major contradictions. Criticizing “Western political hypocrisy” over Europe’s increased reliance on Azerbaijani oil and gas since the start of the Russian-Ukraine war, Aliyev doubled down on framing natural resources as god’s divine gifts (“gifts from God”), defending fossil fuel extraction, saying “we must also be realistic.” His tone also began to resemble that of authoritarian global leaders calling out “fake media” and took on a dissenting stance against those boycotting this year’s COP. I was even more disturbed when suddenly the plenary and overflow rooms broke out with applause following this statement.

Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, speaking at the World Leaders Summit
Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, speaking at the World Leaders Summit

UN Secretary-General António Guterres followed and captured the urgency, warning, “The clock is ticking. We are in the final countdown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5ºC.” Acknowledging the increasing global wealth inequality and it’s connections to climate change, Guterres said:

“This is a story of avoidable injustice. The rich cause the problem, the poor pay the highest price. Oxfam finds the richest billionaires emit more carbon in an hour and a half than the average person does in a lifetime.”

Climate change is inherently tied to the wealth inequality of capitalism. Those in the Global South, as well as individuals of lower socioeconomic status in the Global North, disproportionately bear the consequences and lack the finances to rebuild and invest in adaptation efforts. In other words, climate change doesn’t affect everyone equally—we are not all on the same boat. Throughout the evolution of the UNFCCC, the discourse has focused on the potential threats posed by climate change. However, for many marginalized communities, these threats are not abstract and have been manifesting itself as daily realities of violence and the loss of life and alternative worlds.

Lanyard with activists’ NCQG expectation of $5 Trillion

Given that COP29 is the the “Finance COP,” it is crucial to connect the concentration of wealth among billionaires to climate change. Wealth is heavily concentrated in the hands of a few. The link between climate justice and economic justice is clearer than ever. Addressing climate change requires confronting the systemic mechanisms that allow the wealthy few to amass emissions-intensive wealth at the expense of the many who endure the consequences. This injustice is a form of violence on the behalf of the wealthy few (and the systems that enable this situation to occur) that views the rest, particularly the Global South, as disposable.

My goal throughout week 1 was to attend 2-3 negotiations on adaptation per day. I often felt confused, unsure on whether I was misunderstanding the process or if there was a lack of progress. Daily reports, along with the frustrated expressions on faces of negotiators and observers, confirmed my observations: there was a clear lack of action. At one point, I heard crickets, literally.

Negotiation on the global goal on adaptation

Regardless, it was valuable to witness firsthand the dynamics of negotiations. In the hallways, you could see negotiators huddled together like a sports team, strategizing their approaches. During one session, the African-Group called for a five-minute break to regroup, and suddenly, around 50 people gathered in the corner intensely discussing how to proceed.

At the same time, it was clear not all negotiators were equally active. In an event at the Ocean Pavilion titled “Ethical Horizons: Navigating Climate Intervention and Solutions” with Axel Michaelowa, Margaret Leinen, and Alia Hassan, they highlighted the capacity gaps in the Global South. Although the conversation was focused on technology, Hassan explained how the gaps in technology are also mirrored at COP in how some delegations are stretched thin, running between sessions due to their small size and others simply lack the capacity to defend their countries’ positions effectively. Despite being agreed upon, many agreements at COP result in developing countries compromising to countries with more power who do not have the same urgency as those already being affected by climate change. The adaptation negotiations I attended were largely dominated by the US, Australia, and African Group, while many remained silent.

“Ethical Horizons: Navigating Climate Intervention and Solutions” event at the Ocean Pavilion

Seeking further meaningful engagement, I turned to other pavilions, where I found the Indigenous Peoples Pavilion. With four booths offering live interpretation ranging from Indigenous languages to Portuguese, the small pavilion space consisted of a vibrant energy of love and solidarity, despite being at the forefront of climate change disasters.

International Indigenous Peoples’ Forum on Climate Change pavilion opening

Here, panelists highlighted inequities in COP, where the Global North enjoys larger, better-equipped rooms, while marginalized groups fight for inclusion. However, they made it clear that being present is not enough but what matters is the capacity to advocate effectively. Namely, language barriers further exacerbate inequities, as English dominates and UNFCCC jargon often excludes those most impacted by climate change.

An event titled “Decoding UNFCCC Language” that I attended, provided a collaborative space to address these issues while fostering connections across linguistic and cultural differences. Through case studies and group discussions, participants—including activists, scientists, and lawyers—demystified technical terms. Facilitators encouraged participants to pay close attention to the verbs and diction being used in the writing of texts at negotiations, particularly texts that assert some sort of obligation, as the use of certain words can weaken agreements. The event ended with a chanting of “intergenerational climate justice” in every person’s native language.

“Decoding UNFCCC Language” event featuring someone from my work group sharing definitions we came up with!!
Worksheet on defining Mitigation & Adaptation and Loss & Damage
Worksheet on defining the “Just Transition”

One of the most memorable events I attended was on Indigenous perspectives on carbon markets titled, “Carbon trading for whose benefit.” At the event, Ghazali Ohorella, the lead Indigenous Peoples Caucus negotiator for Article 6, reiterated the concerns and objection of carbon markets. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes a market solution to address climate change through the buying and selling of mitigation outcomes. Indigenous Peoples and other climate activists and lawyers argue that this market mechanism allows polluters to buy offsets rather than truly mitigate their emissions. Ohorella stands for the Caucus’s positions but also recognized the clear dismissal of Indigenous voices, saying that another one of their core efforts is ensuring the “free, prior, and informed consent” from the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples is upheld. Due to the finance nature of this year’s COP, Article 6 is a major focus and its quick adoption has brought up several concerns on its integrity.

 Indigenous Peoples’ pavilion on carbon markets with Ghazali Ohorella

Ohorella continued to mention how although there is a rightful hesitancy among Indigenous Peoples on engagement with carbon markets, learning about it is essential as it can be leveraged as a tool for sovereignty. He referenced the ways in which the Yurok Tribe used California’s carbon offsets program to buy their land back.

At the pavilion, I had a conversation with Tom Goldtooth, the executive director of the Indigenous Environmental Network. He’s attended all COPs, except for the ones he’s been banned at due to his organizing efforts and criticism of the UNFCCC and carbon trading. He pointed out at how activists like him are censored while the number of fossil fuel lobbyists grow every year. In the UNFCCC, every comma, letter, and space carries significant weight. Goldtooth highlighted how Indigenous Peoples organized to ensure the inclusion of the plural “s” in “Indigenous Peoples” as a deliberate effort to remind negotiators, who too often overlook their voices, that they stand as a collective.

“Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Annual Youth Round Table” event, featuring Tom Goldtooth speaking. He’s also right in front of me in the light pink shirt!

At a press conference with Earthworks, Indigenous Peoples from different social cultural regions from the Amazon to the Artic gathered to present principles and protocols for a true just transition. Many recounted the ways in which “Just Transition” projects essentially became landgrabs by corporations backed by the state and military. “All these big geopolitical power wars between China and the US and Mexico, are felt back home by Indigenous Peoples,” said Nicole Yanes in reference to the Plan de Sonora. She also noted that at the summit to prepare the principles and protocols, many Indigenous Peoples found similarities and in fact are facing the same companies, tactics, and strategies that violate their rights. Again, they reiterated the importance of the “free, prior, and informed consent” of Indigenous Peoples as being core to having a Just Transition. In other words, their rights are not optional and lives are not disposable. Janene Yazzie, ended the press conference, calling not for a just transition, but a just transformation.

Earthworks press conference

I also attended a discussion on the criminalization of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities. The speakers presented a map highlighting where earth defenders are killed, with Latin America being the deadliest. Colombia and Brazil were the highest, but the Congo and Philippines were also amongst the top. 

Criminalization of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities event with the map highlighting where earth defenders are killed in the background

Juan Carlos Jintiach, a shuar leader from the Ecuadorian Amazon and Nobel Peace Prize nominee, stated, “We are threats, threats to the global system, and that’s why we’re being killed.” Other speakers also drew connections between state and corporate violence, especially in the context of mineral extraction for the “just transition.” Another speaker emphasized: “We are not against the just transition, as some portray us. What we demand is self-determination; free, prior, and informed consent; and the dignity of Indigenous Peoples to be respected.

As I was heading out for the day, I noticed a large crowd gathered at the Global Center on Adaptation pavilion. I decided to stop and see what was happening not realizing that the people were there for the catered reception. While four women were being honored for their locally led adaptation efforts, the vast majority of people in the crowd were on their phones waiting for the reception to follow. Among one of the speakers was Lastiana Yuliandari, the founder of Aliet Green, a women-owned enterprise based in Yogyakarta, Indonesia focused on empowering local farmers through regenerative organic agriculture and the promotion of fair trade practices. I was captivated by her work and spoke to her following the event.

Global Center on Adaptation pavilion honoring four locally-led adaptation efforts led by women. Lastiana Yuliandari is in the middle with blue highlights!

She shared her story, explaining how following her undergraduate studies — “just like you right-now,” she said — she initially worked for NGOs, a path she was encouraged to follow. However, she grew frustrated with the way these organizations would move from one project to another without any meaningful sustainable work being implemented, often being led by outsiders to the communities. Instead of continuing, she found her own path, returned to her community, and empowered women, who do the brunt of the farming labor in her hometown.

Activists, from lawyers to youth, continued to protest at this year’s COP, representing voices from across the globe. While it was inspiring to witness, I noticed how thousands of people simply walked by the protests without a glance and even scolded demonstrators with an unwillingness to listen. At finance and investment-focused events I attended, speakers often emphasized the need of including voices of the Global South, farmers, and Indigenous Peoples so they’re “not just the ones protesting.” I found this contradictory, as many of the protestors were the same people leading critical discussions in panels and engaging directly with stakeholders.

Ojibwe Elder Great Grandmother Mary Lyons, for example, actively participated in protests and also moderated a session with high-level officials like Senior Advisor to the President John Podesta and Acting Deputy Administrator of the EPA Jane Nishida. Similarly, members of the Palestinian youth delegation, who I saw speak at multiple panels and negotiations, also met with Antonio Guterres and the Green Climate Fund. Other activists also made a heavy presence in negotiation rooms as observers, diligently taking notes. The voices of the Global South, farmers, and Indigenous Peoples are here and have been here making themselves heard through negotiations, high-profile panels, and protests.

It seemed like these protests were dismissed for their disruptions rather than being understood for their intent—to challenge the norms that have driven record fossil fuel emissions, granted lobbyists disproportionate influence, caused record-breaking temperatures, and perpetuated human rights abuses. Disruption of the status quo that the UNFCCC and COP has upheld is the intention.

This brought me back to something else that Tom Goldtooth shared at a panel: “They will divide us [(Indigenous Peoples and the Global South)]—by bringing the ‘good Indian’ to the table, rather than those who will demand the systemic changes and serious conversations we truly need.”

The protestor’s demands were clear: guaranteeing public finance, reducing the private sector’s dominance; stopping genocide and ecocide; ensuring free, prior, and informed consent; and securing $5 trillion for the NCQG.

 Itemized climate invoice with different climate change disasters with country names whitened out as per COP demonstration guidelines.
Demonstration on accelerating climate finance with signs reading “TRILLIONS NOT BILLIONS,” “FILL THE LOSS AND DAMAGE FUND NOW,” “GLOBAL NORTH GOVERNMENTS, YOU OWE US.” The itemized list lays on the floor. One of the protestors is chanting using a bullhorn indoors.
Demonstration calling for an end to genocide and ecocide in Palestine with a big sign reading “STOP FUELING GENOCIDE” and smaller ones reading “NO CLIMATE JUSTICE WITH BLOOD ON OUR LANDS” and “DEMILITARISATION, COLLECTIVE LIBERATION.” The demonstration ended with singing and humming.

As Guterres said, “Time is not one our side,” and the lack of action I witnessed during week one was deeply concerning. However, there is so much happening on the ground, led by frontline communities. COP29, just like all past and future COPs, cannot afford to be a failure. The growing number of officials, such as Swat alumnae, fellow Soc/Anth major, and former UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres—chief negotiator of the Paris Agreement—critiquing COP for enabling human rights abusers and petrostates is a hopeful sign. It shows that people are noticing the contradictions and flaws of the systems they themselves are part of.

While Indigenous Peoples, the Global South, and other vulnerable communities have long understood these issues, more people are finally waking up. The urgency for ambition and meaningful action has never been greater.

Blending Finance, Bridging Gaps: How COP29 is Redefining Climate Action

by Mahika Shergill ’26, Honors Economics & Environmental Studies

BAKU, Nov 15 – At the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), held in Baku, Azerbaijan, finance is taking center stage as global leaders, climate advocates, and representatives from the public and private sectors discuss ways to scale up financial commitments to combat climate change. Dubbed the “Finance COP,” COP29 has prioritized the mobilization of significant climate finance to meet the urgent needs of mitigation and adaptation. Central to these discussions is the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance, intended to replace the previous $100 billion annual commitment made at COP15 in 2009.

The NCQG aims to recognize the enormous financial demands of effective climate action. Initial estimates suggest that climate action requires at least $1 trillion annually, with some projections reaching higher to meet ambitious climate goals. The NCQG not only sets a new target but also shifts the approach from a purely public-funded framework to one that encourages substantial private sector contributions — by the end of the two weeks, the COP Presidency and 198 parties attending hope to reach consensus on what this NCQG means for the climate and its people, and how much money will be committed to it. 

As a junior studying economics and environmental studies with a particular interest in climate policy and law, I tracked discussions around climate finance and carbon markets during week one of COP29. Over the 25+ events and negotiations I attended over the course of the week, a key idea that was repeatedly talked about was the collaborative potential between governments, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and the private sector, all working to unlock the financial flows necessary for meaningful climate progress.

Cross-Sector Collaboration: Public-Private Partnerships as a Catalyst for Climate Finance

At COP29, the necessity of private finance for impactful climate action was a recurring theme. Public funds alone are insufficient to meet the vast investment requirements for a low-carbon transition; therefore, COP29 discussions frequently focused on how to engage private capital effectively. The NCQG itself aims to shift from a purely public-funded model to a framework that prioritizes robust public-private partnerships, emphasizing private sector participation as central to meeting climate targets.

A key insight from the panels came from discussions on the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has catalyzed significant private investment in clean energy both domestically and internationally. Karen Fang, Managing Director and Global Head of Sustainable Finance at Bank of America, noted the IRA’s role in sparking what she called a “manufacturing renaissance” within the U.S., with renewables like solar energy storage becoming one of the most cost-effective energy sources. Both BP and ExxonMobil, traditionally seen as fossil fuel giants, have publicly recognized the economic opportunities in clean energy, suggesting that their investments are not only about compliance but are also driven by the profitability and long-term stability that renewable energy offers — this has meant that companies plan to maintain their climate investments regardless of potential shifts in U.S. or global politics. Ali Zaidi, White House National Climate Advisor, underscored this resilience, noting that the momentum from the IRA and other climate commitments is too entrenched to be reversed by changes in administration.

Governor of Washington State, Jay Inslee, and White House National Climate Advisor, Ali Zaidi, at a US Pavilion event on sub-national level climate action and the Inflation Reduction Act.

The collaboration between governments, MDBs, and private investors continues to be identified as crucial to mobilizing climate finance at scale. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank,  elaborated on this approach, emphasizing that MDBs are positioned to act as “first risk-takers” in sustainable finance initiatives. Through platforms like the soon-to-be-launched Frontiers Opportunity Fund, the World Bank is setting up guarantee mechanisms to absorb early-stage investment risks, making projects in renewable energy and infrastructure more appealing to private capital. By leveraging public and philanthropic funds in this way, MDBs aim to de-risk high-impact projects in middle-income countries, offering private investors a clear pathway to sustainable returns.

‘Unlocking Financing for the Green Transition in Emerging and Developing Economies’ at the World Bank and IMF Pavilion with Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, CEO of Masdar, Nadia Calviño, President of the European Investment Bank, Ajay Banja, President of the World Bank, and Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (left to right).

This collaborative model resonates across private sector perspectives as well. Rich Lesser, Global CEO of the Boston Consulting Group, highlighted that consistency in public-private collaboration is key to scaling these efforts. He pointed out that a stable regulatory landscape and clear policy signals allow businesses to confidently commit to long-term, high-impact projects. Similarly, Andrew Forrest, Executive Chairman of Fortescue Metals Group, noted that Fortescue’s decarbonization strategy had proven financially viable without relying on offsets or carbon capture, underscoring how profitable low-carbon ventures can become within the right partnership frameworks.

High-level Panel facilitated by the World Economic Forum on the interplay between private and public finance.

By facilitating these collaborations, week one of COP29 has showcased how public-private partnerships serve as more than just financial support. They are a means to harness the expertise, resources, and influence of private entities, turning climate finance into a scalable, profitable venture that aligns with global climate goals.

Carbon Markets as a Pathway for Private Sector Involvement

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement which I track closely — carbon markets — emerged as a critical area for engaging private finance in climate solutions. The first day of the conference marked a breakthrough with the operationalization of Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, setting the stage for a globally regulated carbon market. This development has sparked significant interest among private sector participants, who view carbon markets as a key entry point for scaling their climate impact while accessing profitable opportunities in emissions reduction.

Carbon markets allow companies to invest in emissions reduction projects and trade carbon credits, creating a financial incentive for lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Simon Fellermeyer, Article 6 negotiator for Switzerland, emphasized during a panel that the successful implementation of Article 6.4 allows countries and companies to engage in international carbon markets with greater confidence. With established standards and removal guidance, this mechanism provides transparency and legitimacy to carbon credit transactions — factors that are crucial for private investors seeking stable returns.

For many companies, carbon markets represent an opportunity to align financial goals with sustainability commitments. Rachel Mountain, speaking at an event titled, Connecting the Dots between Policymakers in the Global South and the International Private Sector, noted that policy and regulatory clarity are essential for attracting large-scale private investment, as it enables companies to project long-term financial returns without fearing abrupt policy shifts. However, she also emphasized that fragmented regulations across regions could deter investors, stressing the need for a harmonized approach to carbon markets.

Beyond the corporate level, carbon markets offer developing countries a pathway to access private finance. Through revenue generated by carbon credits, countries can fund sustainable projects that might otherwise remain financially unviable. Tajiel Urioh from South Pole explained at the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) Pavilion how carbon credits provide critical financial support for locally tailored projects in low- and middle-income countries. He highlighted the importance of setting up robust national registries to coordinate with international regimes, ensuring that carbon credit revenue flows effectively and sustainably to support these communities.

Despite the optimism, negotiations around the specifics of carbon market regulations are ongoing. Indigenous communities and climate justice advocates have expressed concerns about carbon markets, fearing they may lead to exploitation of land and resources without adequate protections for local populations. Many argue that, without strict safeguards, carbon markets could enable companies to offset emissions without making meaningful reductions, thus allowing “business-as-usual” emissions in wealthier countries. These voices are pushing for continued dialogue and accountability measures within carbon market frameworks to ensure they uphold equity and respect for Indigenous lands and livelihoods — it will be key to see how Article 6.2 and 6.4 negotiations end by week two. 

The Path Forward: Mobilizing Trillions for Effective Climate Action

COP29’s discussions have underscored the vast scale of resources required to meet the NCQG and address the global climate finance gap. With projected funding needs estimated in the trillions, this COP has seen strong calls for wealthier, developed nations to increase their financial commitments. Many countries from the Global South, backed by climate justice advocates and protest groups at COP29, have stressed that high-emitting nations — particularly G20 members — should contribute a larger share, given their historic and ongoing emissions. The principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” remains central, asserting that while all nations have a role, those with greater resources and historical emissions bear a heightened obligation to lead in funding climate solutions.

To meet these ambitious goals, private sector investment is seen as critical. Nadia Calviño, President of the European Investment Bank, speaking on green bonds and debt-for-climate swaps, emphasized that innovative financing methods are vital to meaningfully involve private investors. Similarly, a high-level panel held by the World Economic Forum discussed the importance of streamlined permitting, consistent carbon pricing, and risk mitigation strategies to create an investment-friendly landscape, particularly in infrastructure and energy sectors.

As I look ahead to week two, I will be closely following the continued negotiations surrounding the NCQG, which will ultimately determine the scale and structure of global climate finance commitments. The outcome of COP29 will be crucial in shaping how effectively the world mobilizes to fund a sustainable future, with the balance of public and private finance likely to serve as a determining factor.

COP29: There is Yet Hope

By: Prof. James Padilioni, Jr.

“Africa is NOT the Global South! Africa is the center of the world!” So exclaimed an attendee at the Yasunize Movement demonstration I observed at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Yasuní is a national park located in the Ecuadorean Amazon which UNESCO has declared a world biosphere reserve in recognition that Yasuní features the highest biodiversity of any singular ecosystem on our planet. In August 2023, the Ecuadorian people voted to halt all future oil drilling within the borders of Yasuní National Park, representing a threshold moment for a true transition away from a fossil fuel economy that does not involve the abstract mathematical manipulation of instruments via a carbon market. As such, “to Yasunize” has emerged as a new rallying cry for an environmental geopolitics that questions economic growth and dependence on oil as the only markers of development. Thus, it was evocative for this demonstration at COP29 to signal not only a new paradigm for just transition, but to reorient our global compass and our directional imagination of civilization away from the North-South stratification that constantly places the Global South in a position of extraction and need relative the political economic imperialism of the Global North, specifically North Atlantic modernity in its Euro-American latitudinal influence. In this new cartography of climate action, neither Africa nor Ecuador are the “Global South” relative to an overdeveloped Global North; these locations, and the stalwart climate activists that call them home, are the center of the world, leading us into whatever semblance of a sustainable future we may yet bequeath posterity — if we are so lucky.

Yasunize the World Demonstration @ COP29



I open this year’s reflections on COP29 for the Swarthmore @ COP blog with this anecdote because it signals the indomitable energy of resolution that many negotiators and delegates from the so-called Global South have taken upon themselves, especially in light of the impending second administration of Donald Trump. Our week 1 delegation left Swarthmore just 4 days after Election Day, traveling to Baku, Azerbaijan in a swirl of affect that threatened to derail the intentions of COP29 before it even began. Here, it may be useful to refresh our memory of “the long national nightmare” that was Trump 1.0: less than 18 months after the historic adoption of the Paris Agreement of 2015, President Trump pulled the United States from complying with our Nationally Determined Contributions both in our attempts to scale-down our fossil fuel dependence as well as our pledges to provide financing and cash payments to those developing nations of the Global South who need variously to adapt, mitigate, and/or respond to the losses and damages of climate change and extreme weather events. During the first Trump administration, the common sense sentiment began to emerge that it was necessary for the US, as the world’s largest and most-developed economy, to “reclaim the global lead” on climate action, with the lack of such leadership representing a stumbling block to the climate governance regime enacted by the UNFCCC. (The folks who honestly spout such rhetoric are usually blind to the American exceptionalism of their argument, and the patronizing, Marshall Plan-style way it addresses the globe, but I digress). The United States remained out of compliance with the Paris Agreement until President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in climate resiliency in US history. President Biden, thus, made a triumphal return to COP27 in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt, where he gave a speech from the plenary hall to thunderous applause. Now, just 2 years later, and with only 12-15% of the IRA’s funding appropriations actually paid out, the United States is, once again, on the brink of puling out of the Paris Agreement, and perhaps from leaving the UNFCCC regime entirely.

(I am old enough to have been a perspicacious 7th grader who observed President Clinton sign the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the first binding multinational agreement on climate emerging from the UNFCCC. I am also old enough to have been a 10th grader who remembers the newly-elected President George W. Bush refuse to cooperate with Kyoto, and I recall the 95-0 senate vote against its ratification. The UNFCCC has watched the United States, like a geopolitical pendulum, swing both ways many times before, flaunting the climactic reality and thumbing its nose at the world.)

Environmental and Energy Study Institute Press Conference Panel featuring American politicians/policy makers

Thus, one might speculate the mood at COP29 would be grim, pessimistic, forlorn even. But instead, the energy here is one of urgent confidence, as the rest of the 198 Parties to the Conference are resolved to fill the void left by the withdrawal of Trump’s America from the global world. Indeed, one might even detect a whiff of “good riddance” on the part of the Parties who remain, steadfast in their conviction that we are the last generation of humans who can effectively hold planetary warming to an average increase of 1.5 degrees celsius (perhaps 2.0 would be a more realistic, yet less ideal benchmark).

To this end, the delegates and observers — including Swarthmore’s week 1 students — have engaged the conference in eager pursuit of keeping the intended goals of COP29, namely, settling the business of the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), a plan first agreed upon in 2015 to set a new goal building upon the floor of $100 B USD. Beginning in 2021, an ad hoc work program was established to facilitate technical discussions around the NCQG and to take stock of progress made in 2022 and 2023. The plan for this year is to tabulate these needs and set the NCQG — with or without the United States, this work must continue.

But what, exactly, is to become of the United States? I observed a press conference panel hosted by the Environmental and Energy Study Institute featuring Serena McIlwain, the Secretary of Environment for the state of Maryland, Wade Crowfoot from the California Natural Resources Agency, and Melissa Logan, mayor of Blytheville, AR, located along the banks of the mighty Mississippi River. These three American politicians and policymakers — two Black women and one indigenous man — instigated renewed hope as they confidently and boldly projected a plan of action at the state and local municipal levels to mobilize “boots on the ground” in support of maintaining America’s NDCs, despite the Trump Administration’s impending dereliction of duty. In particular, Mayor Logan passionately promoted the Mississippi River Cities and Town Initiative which includes a bipartisan collaboration between over 150 mayors whose towns and cities line the Mississippi River, one of the world’s most critical lifelines, a waterway whose transited goods supply 1/12 of the globe’s population with their necessary provisions. The work of sustainability will continue because it must!

Across the next two weeks, two groups of Swarthmore students will observe the proceedings of COP29, networking with likeminded advocates and documenting the progress of the NCQG. This blog will feature several of their reflections and form a digital guide for the broader Swarthmore community to follow. Additionally, our students will takeover the Swarthmore Instagram page, and we are planning a spring 2025 on-campus panel to help contextualize the stakes of COP29 for our local campus and borough community. Be sure to follow along!