Reflections on the COP Outcome

In the three days since negotiators reached an agreement in Paris, I’ve seen the deal heralded as everything from “the world’s greatest diplomatic success” to “just bullshit”. There seems to be little consensus as to whether COP-21’s outcome was phenomenal, devastating, or even meaningful whatsoever. Personally, I’m happy (and, frankly, somewhat surprised) to see language regarding a 1.5 degree goal, loss and damages, and human rights make it into the text. At the same time, I know that current INDCs still add to 3+ degrees of global warming from pre-industrial levels and that the legal status of the agreement is still uncertain in many countries (including the U.S.). But overall, I align with commentators who claim the deal was better than expected.

To be clear, I didn’t expect much from the outcome document. Heading to the conference, I tried to eschew any belief that the parties would reach a deal at all. I anticipated that the process would be slow, opaque, and potentially inconclusive. I knew that the COP was a fundamentally political undertaking and that the negotiators faced immense institutional inertia in attempting to reach an agreement. In this respect, the proceedings presented many pleasant surprises. I was excited to see shifts towards transparency and accommodation for all parties, regardless of delegation size. Developing countries still faced undue barriers in comparison to their developed country counterparts, but structural elements like the Paris Committee and Indaba meetings gave me hope for an increasingly inclusive COP process in the future.

After reading the final text, I can’t say I feel excitement or despair or even anything in between. Mostly, I just feel relief. Even though I don’t think we know yet what this text means for decarbonization, fossil fuels, or the environment as a whole, I’m thrilled that the UN successfully provided a space for 196 countries to reach a substantive agreement. This agreement offers a clear focal point for further civil society movements, scientific research, and political negotiations around the world. All of these elements together will determine the trajectory of international climate change policy in the future. For now, the UNFCCC has served its purpose by providing an integral first step that will catalyze countless subsequent actions.

Last Wednesday night, when an agreement seemed to be a distant if not impossible prospect, I feared what an inconclusive COP would mean for both the future of the environment and the viability of UN processes as a whole. It’s my opinion that the global nature of climate change requires a global, intergovernmental solution. Nations don’t bear the brunt of global warming equally, but climate change undoubtedly affects the lives and livelihoods of every person on the planet. If governments can’t all come together to do something at COP, I thought, what chance do they have of addressing other issues like peacekeeping or refugee crises, where the moral imperative for action is considerably murkier? Luckily, the parties managed to reach an agreement. And I left the conference with hope, which is, upon reflection, better than expected.

-Anita Desai