As we walked towards a panel facilitated by One UN on human mobility and climate change, we debated the applicability of the word “mobility” in this case. “Mobility” seems to suggest voluntary movement; whereas we felt that climate-induced human movement better resembles forced migration. Fortunately, our skepticism about the event’s title was allayed as soon as the panel chair started speaking, emphasizing that of issue here is forced human movement and “forced migration.” The panel was informative and saddening at the same time.
A representative from the Norwegian Refugee Council stressed that since 2008, an average of 22.5 million people have been displaced each year due to natural disasters related to weather and climate events. As some of the panelists noted, while we may not be able to say climate change caused these disasters (consider the El Nino in Ethiopia this year, which caused the country’s worst drought in 30 years), climate change exacerbates existing extreme weather events, for instance by intensifying El Niño cycles. At the same time, those who are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change have the least ability to adapt to its negative repercussions. There are, thus, complex but strong linkages between climate change, poverty, poor governance, civil war, and the displacement of people.
A number of panelists referred to the 2014 IPCC report’s recognition of this important issue: “Climate change over the 21st Century is projected to increase displacement of people” and “can indirectly increase the risks of violent conflicts in the forms of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.” As an example, decreased food security and water availability caused by extreme weather not only exacerbate poverty, they might also compel people to move. Conflict over scarce resources poses yet another risk.
The panelists also drew attention to the Nansen Initiative, which refers to the 2011 conference in Norway that laid out 10 principles with the recognition that “a more coherent and consistent approach at the international level is needed to meet the protection needs of people displaced externally owing to sudden-on-set disasters.”
The panelists called for more data and more monitoring. For instance, we do not have adequate data on displacement after disasters, and contrary to common assumptions, people who move to a natural disaster are not necessarily able to move back, leading to, what the IDMC calls, “protracted displacement.” Another issue that requires more study and better policy is “planned relocation,” by national, international, sub-national, and non-state agencies.
Despite the depressing statistics, the panelists seemed encouraged that the Paris text might recognize the linkages between human movement and climate change. This would build on efforts from the 2010 meeting in Cancun, when parties endorsed a linkage between adaptation and displacement. Tonight’s (Dec 10) draft agreement included a request for the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism “To [enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation][initiate a process of identifying arrangements, modalities and procedures to convene and promote work on climate change displacement], draw upon the work of and involve, as appropriate, existing bodies and expert groups under the Convention, as well as that of relevant organizations and expert bodies outside the Convention.” Whether this bracketed reference will survive remains to be seen, as we await the penultimate draft of the Paris agreement tomorrow. Stay tuned!
-Anita Desai, Stephen O’Hanlon, Ayse Kaya
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