Comments on: Oath for Experts Revisited https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2015/09/22/oath-for-experts-revisited/ Culture, Politics, Academia and Other Shiny Objects Thu, 24 Sep 2015 18:57:19 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.4.15 By: Fred Bush https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2015/09/22/oath-for-experts-revisited/comment-page-1/#comment-72980 Thu, 24 Sep 2015 18:57:19 +0000 https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/?p=2883#comment-72980 I am still very uncertain about pro bono. If you can’t get paid for your time, unless you’re a saint you’re going to be primarily offering your time to your affinity groups, so people with ties to powerful groups will be the ones getting expert testimony. If you can hire an expert for $1k or whatever the going rate is right now it’s at least a straightforward transaction rather than necessitating being plugged into some sort of network or begging the godfather for a ballistics expert.

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By: Timothy Burke https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2015/09/22/oath-for-experts-revisited/comment-page-1/#comment-72979 Wed, 23 Sep 2015 18:22:26 +0000 https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/?p=2883#comment-72979 I just happened to pull Tetlock off my shelf this morning! So that’s a good convergence. Yes, I think he’s unsettling, and there are others who are suggesting some similar problems with the value of expert knowledge, some of which I think derives from the existing incentive systems that affect experts.

I suppose I agree that crowdsourcing is very good for some things–but some prediction markets essentially rely upon the aggregation of existing expertise, not only being opposite to or absent of expertise. Let’s put it this way–if we stopped training experts altogether because crowds were good enough, I think crowds would get dumber.

I suppose what I think experts are or could be good at is providing: a) ‘black swan’ insights about the possible importance of highly improbable events that crowds can’t see or discount; b) narrative explanations and interpretations of what crowds understand or know (e.g., they’re good as teachers/storytellers/communicators). What I think they are not presently good at but could become good at is being c) makers, creators, artisans who invent or refashion what crowds know. Not everything can be assembled through open-source networks.

I think the idea of pro bono is important to the professions. The problem is that neoliberalism has relentlessly stripped away the time and autonomy and overall compensation systems that made it possible, and much like any other ‘externality’ we don’t put that on the balance sheet as a cost of neoliberal approaches to organizing labor and society. So yes, we can’t assert a pro bono obligation unless we also rebuild some of the buffers and support systems that made it imaginable.

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By: Fred Bush https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2015/09/22/oath-for-experts-revisited/comment-page-1/#comment-72978 Wed, 23 Sep 2015 03:24:59 +0000 https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/?p=2883#comment-72978 I was also part of a crowdsourced prediction project that beat out expert opinion ( intelligence analysts), and I use the wisdom of the crowds in the form of betting markets quite frequently. So I don’t share your pessimism about crowdsourcing at all!

As for your larger point, I am not sure that experts will want to do pro bono work for criminal trials. That seems quite onerous.

Your oath might be a lot more forceful when rewritten in “I” statements, like the actual Hippocratic Oath. Or if you can work in some mad rhymes like the Green Lantern Oath.

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By: Fred Bush https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2015/09/22/oath-for-experts-revisited/comment-page-1/#comment-72977 Wed, 23 Sep 2015 01:06:50 +0000 https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/?p=2883#comment-72977 What do you think about Phil Tetlock’s research? My trust in expertise was profoundly disrupted when I looked at his work.

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