Incidentally, what are the prospects for South Africa to stay democratic and stable, with no expulsions, civil wars, dictatorships, etc.? In my class with Harry Wright, as the transition was gathering steam, my prediction was that a black democracy of some sort would make it there.–again, prediction holding so far, though the ANC shows alarming tendencies toward one-party-ism. Thoughts?

Yes, I did a paper comparing Ugandan and Kenyan policy toward Asians, asking why the different outcomes. I had a nicely complex answer, but I was at that point (1988) arguing that when 1) a Kikuyu-dominant government came to power again, and 2) the Kikuyu commercial classes decided they didn’t want Asian competition, then 3) out the remaining Asians would be evicted, with no particular tears on the part of any other Kenyans. This I think was a reasonable argument to make in 1988. Now, there *wasn’t* a Kikuyu-led government until arap Moi left, so I didn’t get a chance to test the thesis until just the last few years–at which point, no expulsions. I don’t know exactly what Kikuyu-Asian economic tensions are simmering right now, if any, so I don’t know where that part of the thesis stands. I do suspect, however, that the expulsion/no expulsion decisions have a great deal to do with economic interest, and very little to do with curricula, arts, or food. Asian prominence in business and teaching employment makes them more likely to be expelled than the reverse. The only cultural argument I’ll take as realy promoting non-expulsion is soccer!

Thanks for the rebuttal. You might also have mentioned that the Smith govt. almost certainly used chemical and biological weapons against the rebels in 1979 and 1980. (See pp. 28-42 of Chandre Gould’s PhD here) These sorts of things make it difficult to believe that Smith seriously intended to give way to liberal democracy.

Withywindle,

FWIW, overt persecution of Asians in Kenya lasted from 1963 to 1969, and had lost intensity well before the end. (The only other period was during the 1982 coup attempt in Nairobi, and that was in the context of a general breakdown of law & order). Also, a fair few of the Asians kicked out by Amin went to Kenya.

Anyway, since 1969, Kenyans of South-Asian descent have earned prominence in the arts, business, the professions (a Chief Justice, several lawyers of distinction, etc.) and almost every other sphere of Kenyan life you care to mention. This guy has entered Kenya’s national mythology; the national history curriculum acknowledges the role of Asians in Kenya’s history; Kenya’s first vice-president was half-Goan; a Kenyan team of largely South-Asian descent did exceptionally well at the 2003 World Cup; disproportionately large number of South-Asian women teach in majority-black schools; the national religious-studies curriculum requires study of all three of Christianity, Hinduism and Islam; Asian food is popular; Asian professionals contributed greatly to the late 90’s revival of substantive democracy; the remaining hatreds are best explained by class not race.

Kirchik is an interesting voice on The New Republic’s “The Plank” blog.

I suppose it would be interesting to know if (non-white) Zimbabweans are the sources of Kirchik’s argument, which would argue that some of them are constructing a retrospective myth of Muzorewa, as a way to provide a cultural underpinning for a political departure from the Mugabe regime. Even if factually false, this potentially could be a very useful myth to promote for Zimbabwe’s future. (Cf. “we were all in the Resistance during the war, m’sieu.)